Tropical cyclone activity continues to decline despite beliefs that
it would increase as a result of global warming. Researchers
found that overall, activity has reached near a 30 year low and
the North Atlantic basin is at its quietest point in 12 years. (NOAA)
For the third year in a row, tropical cyclone activity sits near a 30 year low and the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season is showing low levels not seen since 1997. Researchers at Florida State University said that despite what has appeared to be an active season in the Pacific, continual declines in activity are being realized across the globe.
A year ago researcher Ryan Maue documented ‘a remarkable downward trend’ and that trend has continued to flirt with historic lows. Using a measurement called the Accumulated Cyclone Energy index (ACE), Maue said that “2009 as a whole is still well behind normal climatology.”
The ACE index is the standard for measuring tropical cyclone activity. It combines the frequency, duration and intensity of the storms into a numerical index that can be used for historical comparisons.
Through October 2009, the global ACE index for the year sits at 525 – well below the norm of 769. Similarly, if looked at separately both the northern and southern hemisphere activity show well below average numbers. Breaking it down further by basins, the North Atlantic, Western Pacific, Eastern Pacific and North Indian basins are seeing below average ACE as well.
For the Atlantic basin, two storms – Hurricane Bill and Hurricane Fred – accounted for 82% of the tropical activity. So far this year, the North Atlantic has seen its weakest level of activity since 1997 and is at 45% of normal.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially ends on November 30th and thus far there have been a total of eight named storms, two of which became hurricanes. On average the basin sees 10 named storms, six of which become hurricanes.
In the past, climate change alarmists said that increased tropical cyclone activity would be a side effect of global warming. The distinct lack of activity in recent years goes counter to that theory however.
In March when the FSU researchers provided an update on ACE they said, “Under global warming scenarios, hurricane intensity is expected to increase (on the order of a few percent), but MANY questions remain as to how much, where, and when. This science is very far from settled. Indeed, Al Gore has dropped the related slide in his PowerPoint [presentation].”
12-month running sums of Accumulated Cyclone Energy for
the entire globe during the past 31-years (Ryan Maue, FSU)
On the Net: Ryan N. Maue's Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity Update
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Comments
Were the gw models wrong AGAIN? Say it ain't so!
The Earth is just a DENIER!
Great story. The comment "The Earth is just a DENIER!" cracks me up!
The present status of hurricanes and the future climate of hurricanes are two very different things. Hurricanes (and ACE) are currently at a low due to an active El Nino. Current rates is not representative of any trend through time, but more decadal variability. These two things are difficult to discern. If climate change is either increasing or decreasing hurricane frequency, we must look beyond the most recent years of data. That being said, I think it is impossible to tell either way at this time. There would be more of a consensus if the answer was that easy.
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