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When do we expect rain next? Is snow in the forecast for Tahoe?

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December 22, 2011

Lately the weather forecast for the San Francisco Bay and Silicon Valley region has been quite plesant and average this time of years with high temperatures between 58 and 62 degrees, and low temperatures down in the low 40's. But one certain weather charachteristic has been missing the last few weeks... the lack of rain.

Typically, during the winter months across California we see our wettest time of year, and pick up a good chunk of our yearly alotment of rainfall. In December alone we picked up only 0.06 inches of rain at San Jose Airport, 0.12 inches at San Francisco, and 0.10 inches at Oakland according to the National Weather Service climatology records up to December 21st 2011. This is compared to what we should see, which is 2.59 inches of rainfall in the month of December in San Francisco. If we take a step back and look at the past 6 months dating back to July, the San Francsico Bay region has seen 2.87 inches of rain where on average we should have seen 6.13 inches by now.

High pressure is still in control over central and northern California, and will remain over the area for at least the next 5 to 6 days. This means continued sunny and dry conditions, and high temperatures around 60 degrees. However, taking a look at the long term outlook, it appears a shortwave trough coupled with a strong area of low pressure moving into British Columbia Canada could bring the next chance of rain to San Jose, San Francisco, and Oakland a few days after Christmas on Dec 27th. This rain is much needed for the region too. In addition, the dry Lake Tahoe ski region is likely to pick up some snow accumulation out of this event, which is also much needed as many ski resorts have been relying more on man-made snow at the beginning of the ski season.

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