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What's Your Deal

This famous phrase from USC football coach Pete Carroll to Stanford's Jim Harbaugh for running up the score awhile back started the fierce rivalry between the two, now culminating in next Sunday's Seattle Seahawks vs. 49ers NFL game.

It appears that the Runaway Bull Market might be taking a hiatus starting the new year, as many Sentiment and Breadth Indicators are in extremis: The NASDAQ to NYSE Volume last week hit a high ratio of 3.17 to 1, at least a decade since I've been following it; New Highs to New Lows on both exchanges are 10 to 1. Bulls in the Investors Intelligence survey stay above 60%, with the Bullish % (stocks on a BUY signal) over 80%.

Coincidently, Insider Selling continues to be massive for the 4th straight week, starting with and possibly due to the year end. Monthly margin debt is at record highs with ZIRP seducing investors. Charts from Schwab Research show a fairly tight correlation between margin interest and the SPX, as well as an inverse correlation to lowering jobless claims and the Unemployment rate- so all is well, until it is not.

Last Saturday was the Annual Pring Thing at Golden Gate University, where the legendary Martin Pring group (sans Martin this year) present their views of the business cycle in a 3-hour presentation from Joe Turner and Tom Kopas. Martin, however, will be teaching his online Technical Analysis class.

The 9 a.m. session started with analysis of the usual business cycles - cyclical and secular-, ending with specific recommendation of Sectors and even stocks within. Historically, over 33 cycles from 1857, they have an 85% success, but cycles can vary within the 6 Stages (we are now supposedly in the 4th moving into the 5th). Free charts can be found at (doh!).

Upcoming meetings of the TSAA include:

Tracy Knudsen of Lowry Research

When: Tuesday, February 11, 2014; 2:00pm-3:30pm PT

Where: Bloomberg West Coast Headquarters Pier 3

San Francisco, CA 94111

Lowry Research is the oldest continuously published Technical Investment Advisory in the United States. Senior Market Analyst Tracy Knudsen, CMT will present the firm’s global outlook on equity markets via live webcast. Cost is FREE to attend for both TSAA-SF members and non-members.

In March, CMT John Lewis from Dorsey, Wright will be speaking at GGU.


SF Bay Area Options Group

Saturday 1-18-2014

This Group is not associated with any commercial, political or religious entity. Content of discussion shared among members and guests is strictly for education and information only. Members and guests are fully responsible for their trading decisions.

9:00 AM to 12:00 Noon
Room C-235, Fort Mason Center, San Francisco