The weekend is seeing the area of disturbed weather north of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula continue to weaken and become less organized. The Saturday afternoon update from the National Hurricane Center gives what used to be known as Invest 92 a 30 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. The latest forecast calls for interests along the Gulf of Mexico from New Orleans to eastern Texas and southern Mexico to monitor the system, which could generate some heavy storms and up to five inches of rain in some areas. However, there are concerns that Invest 92 could turn into a strong tropical system on a moment's notice.
While noting that none of the forecasts or computer models predict any such thing CNN meteorologist Chad Myers is urging everyone along the central and western Gulf of Mexico coastline to be aware of the possibility that the system could intensify rapidly. “The risk is that this is very warm water. This could explode at any time.” Myers comments are interesting for two reasons: first, he is an American Meteorology Society certified meteorologist and severe weather expert. Second, his concern points up the biggest single weakness in the field of hurricane forecasting: the inability to accurately predict how strong storms will become.
Looking out into the Atlantic Tropical Storm Erin continues to tangel with dry Saharan air and only moderately warm ocean temperatures as it heads in a generally northwestern direction. According to Advisory number 11 from the National Hurricane Center, Erin could fall completely apart within the next five days without posing a threat to any land mass.