The Russians recently have been sending confusing signals to the rest of the world. From large increases in its proposed defense budget to arms sales that are on and off the Russian pattern of activity is difficult to discern. Let us look at recent events.
- Russia’s defense spending, including research and development (R&D), is reported to total 487 billion Russian rubles in 2010; 574 billion rubles in 2011 It will then continue to ramp up 726 billion rubles in 2012; and then to 1.16 trillion in 2013. However this ramp up in spending may be negated by inflation.
- Interestingly the spending will focus on procurement of RS-24 intercontinental ballistic missiles and Bulava submarine-launched ballistic missiles; Su-34 Fullback fighter-bombers and Su-35 Flanker-E long-range fighter jets; submarines; corvettes and frigates for the Black Sea Fleet; and battlefield command-and-control systems for the ground forces.
- During recent talks with Defense Secretary Gates the Russians expressed interest in US defense technologies. However,
- Russia has long sold weapons to Iran but claims such sales are intended only for the country's defensive purposes. Reportedly the most contentious sales is the much-talked-about but long-delayed delivery of Russian-made S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to Iran has been cancelled. Iran mow claims to have obtained some S-300 missiles from another seller, possibly Belarus.
- Russia recently confirmed its plans to conclude arms deals with Venezuela that could be worth in the billions of dollars. Reportedly, it will include a plethora of items from small arms to advanced missiles. Additionally, there are now reports that Russia is going to help Venezuela become a nuclear power..
- Russia continues to sell Syria everything from advanced radar to fighters. There are concerns in the US and Israel about the rumored sale of the S-300 missiles to Syria. Now, the Russian government is confirming at least one planned deal with Syria, much to Washington's dismay: the sale of P-800 Yakhont cruise missiles, which Israeli officials believe will be transferred to Hezbollah armed forces and used to threaten its navy warships
- Arms sales to Africa and the Sudan in particular, are increasingly worrisome. International sanctions prohibit selling weapons to any of the parties fighting in Darfur, but Russian weapons have repeatedly shown up there. Russia, for its part, denies breaking the embargo. China is frequently criticized for its arms shipments to Sudan while Russia has more quietly become Khartoum's major arms supplier. Former Soviet states such as Belarus and Ukraine have joined in such activities.
- Russia finds itself in fierce competition for Indian arms sales.
- Having solved a problem with the aircraft it sold Algeria on Algerian terms it looks forward to an increase in arms sales.
Behind Russia's new focus and all of the arms sales noted above lies a cold reality: Moscow needs foreign cash and arms sales are a critical way to get it. Such sales that create consternation in the West also probably placate the hardliners in Moscow. The 2008 global financial crisis hit Russia much harder than the Kremlin will admit. It reportedly pushed its GDP down 7.9 percent. Over-leveraged Russian companies, which owed over $450 billion, found their access to Western capital cut off. The weaknesses of Russia's uncompetitive oil-fueled economy were cruelly exposed. Other than oil Russia really only has arms that it can sell for hard cash in the world market place. These arms sales reflect the reality of the needed foreign capital cash flow and are probably intended to help fund the increase in domestic arms production. Whether there are any more sinister intentions behind these sales only times will tell.
What do you think—sinister motives or just good business? Should the US be seeking to exploit this Russian vulnerability? Was the reset policy necessary and good for the US given Russian weakness? These are all questions that must be asked and answered in coming months.
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