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Weighing the odds: who will NBC's ‘The Office’ hire to replace Michael Scott?

If you are a diehard fan “The Office,” then chances are you are probably still off somewhere feeling like you could burst into tears at any moment. Michael Scott (Steve Carell) has taken off his microphone, and the character’s not coming back from Colorado for more laughs, Dundies, or awkward encounters with B. J. Novak‘s Ryan.

While there may be some out there resisting the idea of the show going on with a new character behind the head desk, it’s happening -- and the potential is still there for plenty of laughs. NBC has been clever so far to keep the name of Michael’s successor a secret, and one of the ways they have done so is by stacking the deck for their May 19 finale with guest stars left and right. 
 
So much as Michael himself looked to control “Lady Fortune” during the season two finale “Casino Night,” let’s play the odds to see who is the most likely out of the upcoming actors currently confirmed to appear to actually secure a full-time role (not to mention some we already know and love).
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The candidates, in order from least likely to be hired to most likely

11. Ray Romano: While a good many people do “love” Raymond, this really doesn’t seem like a good fit for the actor’s trademark humor. It also doesn’t help that he already has a permanent full-time gig in TNT’s “Men of a Certain Age.”
 
10. B. J. Novak: No way. Been there, done that, enough said.
 
9. Will Arnett: At one point, the “Running Wilde” star was considered a front-runner to land the coveted job both on the show and in real life. However, word is that he’s already filmed another pilot with Christina Applegate. If that doesn’t get picked up, then it’s possible he could star here … but why would he have booked another job to begin with if he had a future on “The Office” for longer than an episode?
 
8. Will Ferrell: The story arc of the season is clearly not on Will’s side -- especially since he only signed on for one more episode as DeAngelo Vickers. Will’s character seems compulsive, manic, and not even particularly good as his job. Pending a shocker, he will be out the door soon in the next new episode. 
 
7. Jim Carrey: Carrey is a terrific actor in some of his films, and you have to think that maybe he is at the stage in his life now that he would be interested in having a consistent TV gig. The two biggest concerns? Money to pay him (as Carrey has demanded rather large salaries for his work over the years), and then money to handle the numerous takes that Carrey typically likes in order to get his jokes just right.
 
6. Ricky Gervais: In all sincerity, Ricky should be even lower on this list in that he himself has said that he will not be bringing David Brent to the show full-time. The only reason he is a more likely candidate than Carrey for the job is that Gervais has been known to pull a few surprises in the past, and financially he could see this as an opportunity to pull in even more cash for a show that he already executive-produces. (Then again, Gervais would be the first to tell you that he really loves just sitting back and cashing in his syndication checks without having to get up early in the morning to work.)
 
5. Rainn Wilson, John Krasinski, Jenna Fischer, or Ed Helms: If you are looking at in-house candidates, these four all seem to have the same sort of momentum when it comes to getting this job. We’ve already seen Dwight in charge, and neither Jim nor Pam seem particularly right to be in charge permanently. As for Ed Helms’ Andy, he is still learning how to be a good salesman. Being a boss is a good ways down the road.
 
4. Craig Robinson: It really does seem that many of the show’s characters are played out, and we need some new blood in the office to shake things up. If for some reason producers do decide to ultimately hire from within, Robinson’s character of Darryl would be a strong underdog pick. The storyline has shown him developing a strong sense for business since leaving the warehouse, and he would bring an entirely different sort of energy than what we had with Michael. His biggest weakness may simply be that the character is too serious.
 
3. Catherine Tate: Who? That is going to be the biggest obstacle surrounding Tate getting hired as Michael’s replacement -- the British comedienne is extremely funny, but this is also a business and NBC is probably leaning towards getting a permanent name that people are familiar with in the United States.
 
2. James Spader: Out of the names we have heard about, this is the one that makes the most sense. He’s got a great history of playing bosses on TV, can navigate both comedy and drama without a problem, and does not have major commitments standing in his way. He may not be the flashiest name out there in terms of creating a ratings splash, but long-term he could be the key towards getting some stability in a post-Michael era.
 
1. Someone we haven’t been introduced to yet: Yes, this could be seen as a cop-out -- but it’s also an extremely likely scenario. The whole reason producers have cast so many names in the finale is that they want to create a surprise, and hiring someone we never see coming would be the biggest surprise of all. It is not going to be an easy task, but they need someone who will provide laughs without either copying Michael or alienating the devoted fans who have been watching for over a hundred episodes.
 
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Who are you thinking right now is the best candidate for the job, and do you think we could still be surprised with an unannounced name?
 
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Matt Carter is a poet, journalist, and screenwriter from Dallas, TX. A former reality and game show contestant, he published his first book, "Storms of Change," in May 2008. He can be reached here.

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