The chain of disturbances over the northern Pacific Ocean, aided and abetted by a surge of equatorial moisture, should give us a decent chance at rainfall this weekend. Thunderstorms may actually occur over West Texas on Friday evening, but the better spread of convection will be from Saturday afternoon through Sunday night over the eastern two-thirds of the state. Since an upper level low will be hanging back over northern Mexico, there is a fair chance that the front triggering the convection may stall with a wave formation. If so, then chances will be in place for heavy rainfall, and perhaps some severe weather as well before the boundary slips eastward on Monday.
I suspect that temperatures will trend milder or warmer after a brief drop early next week. Many of the numerical models have backed away from previous outlines favoring widespread cold weather across much of the lower 48 states. Instead, a consensus is emerging that the West Coast and the Northeast will be the only truly chilly places in the U.S., with the Intermountain Region, Great Plains, Corn Belt and Much of Dixie in a mild or warm pattern. The next reasonable chance for important rainfall may not be until St. Patrick's Day from the storm now entering the Gulf of Alaska.
Friday: Partly cloudy and warmer. Highs 76 Juliff to 80 New Caney
Friday Night: Variable cloudiness, breezy and mild; becoming humid. Lows 57 Porter Heights to 61 Angleton
Saturday: Variable cloudiness, windy, warm and humid. A few showers are possible. Highs 80 Lake Jackson to 84 Kingwood
Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, breezy and humid. A few showers are possible. Lows 66 Humble to 70 Clute
Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms, heavy at times. A few storms could be severe. Highs 78 Freeport to 82 Atascocita
Monday: Sunny, cooler and less humid. High 70, Low 52
Tuesday: Sunny and milder. High 76, Low 50
Wednesday: Partly sunny and warmer after early day fog. High 81, Low 56