Discussion
Spring storm forecasting is tough for any number of reasons. One being the increasing sun angle as opposed to lingering cold air at upper levels (implying increased potential for severe thunderstorms). The other major issue is the potential for snow, since the rules for frozen precipitation prediction are different than those of the winter months. The weekend outlook across the nation represents a case in point.
Houston and vicinity will have two possible outcomes on Saturday. One, as the intense storm passes by to the north (in the vicinity of the Red River Valley before a turn toward Kentucky and the Virginias), the area will get clocked with super cellular thunderstorms with risks for large hail, strong winds, and even tornadoes. The other is a case where hot, dry air from Mexico punches through at the midlevels, sets up a stout cap in the middle levels of the atmosphere, and reduces our chance of precipitation to mere drizzle or sprinkles. I think the most likely result of the intense disturbance will be for a barrage of intense convection across East Texas, that is the counties along and east of Interstate 45 and to the right of Beltway 8. On Saturday night through Palm Sunday, I suspect that this fearsome storm will hammer the Dixie states with what amounts to a twister outbreak. Further north, a mantle of heavy wet snow, accompanied by strong winds and advancing cold air, will create an abundance of power and transportation problems from the Colorado Front Range through the Corn Belt and middle Appalachia.
Once the low pulls away into the northern Atlantic Ocean, an impressive bank of cold high pressure will take control of weather east of the Continental Divide. Our lower latitude in Houston will enable most high temperatures to reach or surpass 60, but night lows could easily dip into the upper 30s with a few cases (almost unheard of for this time of year in Texas) of frost north of the Bayou City. With any luck, warmer air should come back by next weekend.
Crossing fingers....
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Weekend Forecast
Friday: Variable cloudiness, warmer and more humid with sprinkles. Highs 84 Hitchcock to 88 Livingston
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, humid with drizzle, sprinkles, and patchy fog. Lows 66 Shepherd to 70 Santa Fe
Saturday: Variable cloudiness, hot and humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly in the afternoon. Severe weather is possible, mostly just north and east of the Houston metro area. Highs 87 Alvin to 91 Cold Spring
Saturday Night: Variable cloudiness, windy and much colder (especially after midnight). Lows 45 Cleveland to 49 Friendswood
Sunday: Sunny, breezy and cooler. Highs 64 Roman Forest to 68 Pearland
Extended Outlook
Monday: Sunny and cool. High 60, Low 39
Tuesday: Sunny and cool. High 58, Low 37
Wednesday: Sunny and a little milder. High 65, Low 38
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