Discussion
If you think about it, the potential for some minor frozen precipitation around Houston should not be that big of a deal. It is doubtful that surface temperatures will be cold enough to allow for much, if any, ice formation on roads and bridges. The moisture levels in the atmosphere will not permit much in the way of rain, sleet or snow to form anyway. By Saturday night, the upper level disturbance associated with the (ahem) threat of sleet and flurries will exit the scene. The cold night that follows will give way to a warming trend likely to last through the middle of next week.
The next two weeks look extremely interesting for local, and national, weather. Surrounded by strong ridging over Greenland, the eastern Pacific Ocean, and the Greater Antilles (a notable, almost summer-like, subtropical high), the circumpolar vortex (motherlode of Arctic air) will be forced into a long-term position over Ontario. A positive-tilt, full-latitude trough will stretch from this cold dome south-southwestward into Mexico and Texas. This jet stream configuration will allow for drainage of ever colder air masses as well as important winter storms taking the "Galveston Bay Spin-Up" type track (below Houston TX through Cleveland OH or Pittsburgh PA and then into QC). The first storm in the series, which will have abundant tropical moisture (blame that Cuba/Bahamas heat ridge for that), looks to arrive later Tuesday into Wednesday. European model output would suggest that system, plus the disturbance which arrives around January 11, could dump anywhere between 3 and 5 inches of rainfall.
With the passage of each storm in the sequence, colder air will become more and more firmly established over Texas. So much so that by mid-month, when an entirely new group of impulses in the southern branch wind field triggers cyclogenesis events in the Gulf of Mexico, we will go from concerns about thunderstorms and heavy rain to perhaps important risks for frozen precipitation. Remember that the odds of getting any measurable ice and snow in Houston in any given winter are about 1 in 12, so rainfall is always the far more likely option.
Wouldn't YOU agree that we are having a more interesting winter season than the one previous?
Useful Links
Dundee Satellite Receiving Station
GOES Project Science
Texas Meteorological Satellite Images - GOES — Texas Commission on Environment
Weekend Forecast
Friday: Variable cloudiness, rather cool with a few spots of drizzle or sprinkles. A few sleet pellets may fall in areas along and north of FM 1488 and TX 242. Highs 46 Hempstead to 50 Winnie
Friday Night: Variable cloudiness, rather cool with a few spots of ice pellets, drizzle or sprinkles. Some snow flurries may fall in areas along and north of FM 1488 and TX 242. Lows 31 Prairie View to 35 Wimberley
Saturday: Mostly cloudy and cool with some early morning drizzle. Highs 50 Waller to 54 Anahuac
Saturday Night: Gradual clearing and cold. Lows 29 Hockley to 33 Kountze
Sunday: Sunny and warmer after a cold start Highs 56 Cypress to 60 High Island
Extended Outlook
Monday: Mostly sunny and milder. High 64, Low 37
Tuesday: Increasing cloudiness, breezy and milder with rain developing in the afternoon. Heavy rain and thunder likely at night. High 69, Low 51
Wednesday: Heavy rain and thunderstorms ending in early afternoon. Mostly cloudy and cooler by late day. High 65 (A.M.), Low 42 (Wednesday night)
Comments