Discussion
Despite a very serious weather situation unfolding over New England (blizzard warnings), Houston should get through most of the weekend in a mild and relatively calm scenario. I use the word "relatively", because there is some potential for strong thunderstorms in southeastern Texas late Saturday night into Sunday. The key words which describe the pattern would be "some rain and thunder" as well as "gradually cooling". Nothing too shocking for February, but then again the outlook for later in the month may be decidedly meaner.
The system triggering the thunderstorm threat in Texas this weekend will be moving out of the Intermountain Region, establishing a connection to very warm, moist air and a low level jet stream across the lower Great Plains. While the Bayou City sees occasional showers in the gusty southerly flow, severe thunderstorms will crop up in a belt from S KS into N TX. Accompanying the cold front (which will be slowing down during as it approaches the western Gulf Coast), most of the Houston metro may be involved in heavy or locally severe convection before 4 PM on Sunday. As this disturbance and attendant frontal structure moves across the Corn Belt and Old South on Monday, a severe weather outbreak is possible with plentiful snow and wind across the Upper Midwest.
The thermal boundary looks to stall along or just below the western Gulf Coast by Monday morning. Energy moving out of the cold 500MB trough covering the West should initiate wave cyclogenesis bear Corpus Christi late on February 11, followed by bands of stratiform rain and some thunder that may linger around Houston and Galveston for much of Tuesday. The air mass that follows that system will be of a cool or even chilly nature. However, the increasing sun angle at our lower latitude should keep SE TX out of frost or freeze potential next week.
But you very likely will need a jacket or sweater headed out to work as we go through mid-February!
Useful Links
UW-Madison Department of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences
NCEP MODEL ANALYSES AND GUIDANCE
Rapid Refresh (RAP)
Weekend Forecast
Friday: Partly cloudy after patchy morning fog. Risk of a brief sprinkle or shower. Highs 68 Panorama Village to 72 Webster
Friday Night: Variable cloudiness with dense coastal fog developing late. Lows 54 Conroe to 58 Dickinson
Saturday: Variable cloudiness, windy, humid after morning fog disperses. A few showers likely in the afternoon. Highs 74 The Woodlands to 78 Friendswood
Saturday Night: Variable cloudiness, breezy and humid with occasional showers. Lows 62 Spring to 66 South Houston
Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms, heavy at times. Some clearing possible late. Highs (A.M.) 70 North Houston to 74 Seabrook
Extended Outlook
Monday: Cloudy and cooler with periods of rain and drizzle. High 62, Low 49
Tuesday: Rain and a few thunderstorms early; then mostly cloudy and colder. High 58, Low 44
Wednesday: Partly sunny, breezy and cool. High 56, Low 39
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