Discussion
Enjoy Friday. Sure, there may be issues with fog early and at night, but much of the day should be of the "partly cloudy and mild" variety. Because once we enter the weekend, that phrase "it's all downhill from here" comes to mind....
As it stands now, we may have about six straight days of ugly weather to deal with before the sun re-appears in the Houston sky for any length of time. A broad and complex disturbance entering the Great Basin will eject two or three mesoscale shortwaves eastward into Texas between now and Wednesday. Every time an impulse approaches, a wave of low pressure will form in the western Gulf of Mexico along a stationary front. The front itself will be the catalyst for string thunderstorms later Saturday into Sunday. Then, with overrunning setting up in the cool air, each piece of energy at 500MB will be associated with rain, and perhaps some thunder. This is the routine the Bayou City will find itself involved with through Wednesday.
The main storm complex (blocked initially by a subtropical high over Florida and Cuba) rolls through Wednesday night and Thursday. There is still major disagreement among the numerical models about how Texas and the rest of the Old South (and East Coast) will be affected by this feature. But mostly I side with the European model idea of a track just to our north, somewhat of a mimic for the disturbance which affected us Tuesday and Wednesday. That entails more heavy rain and thunderstorms. With any luck, the following weekend should be of the "cool and dry" variety in the Lone Star State.
Useful Links
Current Climate Summary Maps - Powered by ACIS - High Plains Regional Climate
Climate Prediction Center - Monitoring & Data: ENSO Impacts on the U.S.
US Drought Monitor
Friday: Partly sunny and mild after morning fog. Increasing cloudiness likely late with sprinkles along the Gulf Coast by sunset. Mild. Highs 73 Bayou Vista to 77 Willis
Friday Night: Locally dense fog and drizzle. Showers likely after midnight. Lows 56 Conroe to 60 Texas City
Saturday: Variable cloudiness, very mild and humid with occasional showers. Heavy thunderstorms likely in locations to the nearby north and west of Houston. Highs 75 Kemah to 79 Egypt
Saturday Night: Showers and thunderstorms, heavy at times. Lows 60 Magnolia to 64 Clear Lake
Sunday: Cloudy and colder with periods of rain and thunderstorms. Early day highs 70 Stagecoach to 74 Seabrook
Extended Outlook
Monday: Rain and thunderstorms in the morning. Cloudy, breezy and colder in the afternoon with lingering showers. High 51, Low 42
Tuesday: Cloudy and chilly with periods of rain. High 50, Low 41
Wednesday: Cloudy and cool with periods of rain. High 54, Low 44
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