The day ahead will feature a partly sunny sky with a high in the low 60s.
SOME RAIN TONIGHT: A short wave along with a surface warm front will bring the risk of showers to Mississippi tonight. The high resolution NAM hints the best chance of showers will come from 6:00 p.m. until 3:00 a.m.; the moisture will be pretty limited, so rain amounts should be rather light and spotty.
WARMER WEEKEND: We head for the upper 60s tomorrow, followed by low to mid 70s Sunday as the warm-up begins and we kick off meteorological spring. The weekend looks dry with a mix of sun and clouds. However, clouds will thicken Sunday night, and rain could advance into the state ahead of the next storm system.
Sure looks like the main window for rain will come from about midnight Sunday night through noon Monday. The last few model runs have been a little drier, hinting at around 1/2 inch of rain for North-Central Mississippi. Some some the Storms may become severe alone the Mississippi River.
NEXT WEEK: After the rain moves out Monday afternoon, colder air moves back into the state, but the GFS and the ECMWF have continued to back off on the intensity of the cold air for Mississippi. We will drop into the upper 20s early Tuesday, followed by a high in the low to mid 50s Tuesday afternoon. A high near 60 degrees is possible Wednesday as the seriously cold air stays north of Mississippi.
And, that is a good thing since models show a significant Gulf of Mexico low pressure center impacting our state with a big rain event Thursday. If we had cold air in place, that could have been a setup for a big late season snow. But, thickness values support all rain for Mississippi.