A chilly high pressure system was acting as the Capital Region’s de-facto protector this morning. In meteorological jargon, this high pressure would be noted as a ‘dirty high’, owing to the fact that despite it being essentially over the region this morning, there are lots of clouds still hanging tough over the area.
Through the course of the day today, clouds will continue to thicken and lower as two distinct areas of lower pressure, one over the Tennessee Valley, and the other over the Carolina coast, join forces and ride northward through the day today. The inland low pressure area will ride through the upper Great Lakes by Monday morning, while the coastal system moves to position just off the mid Atlantic coast. Seeing as though the high pressure area mentioned in the opening paragraph looks to hang tough over New Brunswick, keeping cold air in place in the low levels of the atmosphere, while the mid levels of the atmosphere begin a slow temperature rise to near or above freezing. Thus, precipitation should begin to transition from snow to a mix of sleet and/or freezing rain, and it looks as if this may occur just in time for the morning commute on Monday.
Precipitation should eventually change over to all rain in the Capital District and points south and east by the afternoon on Monday, as the systems pull away from the area. Colder air will wrap back into the region behind the departing storms, thus some residual snow shower activity may occur on Monday night.
Another clipper type system approaches the region on Tuesday, and again on Wednesday, complete with a chance for lighter snow showers with the passage of each system. Blustery west to northwesterly breezes look to kick up as well, as a colder airmass is reinforced with the passage of each respective impulse. High pressure reasserts control by the end of the work week and into the coming weekend, with below normal temperatures persisting.
...Below is the official forecast for the Capital Region and vicinity...
Today: Increasing, thickening, and lowering clouds. Flurries possible late in the day. High in the lower 30’s. Northwest winds 5-10 MPH.
Tonight: Overcast with snow developing by midnight. Snow may mix with sleet and/or freezing rain late at night. Low near 25, with temperatures slowly rising to near 30 late at night. East to southeast winds 5-10 MPH. Chance of precipitation is 90 percent. Snow accumulations of one to three inches with minor icing accumulations possible late at night.
Monday: Sleet and/or freezing rain during the morning, transitioning to all rain showers and drizzle by afternoon. High near 40. South to southwest winds 5-15 MPH. Chance of precipitation is 90 percent. Additional icing accumulations possible during the morning hours.
Monday Night: Variable clouds and breezy with a chance of rain and/or snow showers early in the evening. Low near 25. West winds increasing to 10-20 MPH with some higher gusts to near 25 MPH possible at times. Chance of precipitation is 20 percent. Wind chill temperatures in the single digits above zero. Little if any additional snow accumulation expected.
Tuesday: Partly sunny, blustery, and chilly with a chance of snow showers. High near 35. West winds 10-20 MPH. Chance of snow is 30 percent.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and windy with a 30 percent chance of snow showers. High near 30 and low near 15.
Thursday: Mostly sunny and cold. High near 25 and low near 15.
Friday: Mostly sunny and cold. High near 25 and low near 15.
Saturday: Partly sunny. With a 30 percent chance of snow showers. High near 30 and low near 15.