Week 12 NFL Preview | AFC South | (part two) Indianapolis Colts (10-0) at Houston Texans (5-5) - Indianapolis Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis Colts DE Dwight Freeney (AJ Mast/AP Photo)

Indianapolis Colts versus Houston Texans at Reliant Stadium in Houston, Texas . . .

Indy Football Report Editor John Oehser breaks down the Week 12 NFL matchup between the Colts (10-0) and Houston Texans (5-5) . . .

PART TWO OF TWO. PART ONE HERE

THIS WEEK'S LIST . . .

The memorables . . .

The Colts and Texans have played 15 times since 2002, Houston's first year of existence. Although Indianapolis has won 14 of the meetings, that doesn't mean the Texans never have been competitive. Not only did the Texans come close to winning in Indianapolis earlier this month, they beat the Colts in 2006 and have pushed Indianapolis deep into games on numerous occasions. A look at the top five games in Colts-Texans history:

COLTS 20, TEXANS 17 | December 28, 2003 | This was the fourth meeting between the teams, but the first time the Texans had a realistic chance to win late. Indianapolis trailed by double digits late, but rallied to beat the Texans with a short field goal in regulation by K Mike Vanderjagt. The kick not only secured the victory, but clinched the first of the Colts' five consecutive AFC South titles.

TEXANS 27, COLTS 24 | December 24, 2006 | Following the tight game in the '03 finale, Houston didn't get too close to Indianapolis again the next two seasons. They got caught up in a few of QB Peyton Manning's bigger games, and the series seemed one-sided entering their second meeting of 2006. The Colts entered the game having clinched the AFC South a week before, but they also were in the middle of a difficult December in which they lost three division games and struggled against the run. The struggles were accentuated in Houston. Despite a near-perfect day by Manning and the Colts offense, RB Ron Dayne had a huge day for the Texans, who won on a 48-yard field goal in the final seconds by Kris Brown.

COLTS 31, TEXANS 27 | October 5, 2008 | It's easy to remember how unlikely the victory was for the Colts. They trailed by 17 points in the final four minutes, but two fumbles by Texans QB Sage Rosenfels and a highlight-reel touchdown reception by WR Reggie Wayne gave the Colts the victory. What's not as easy to remember was how much Indianapolis needed the victory. The Colts were 1-2 entering the game, and without this victory they woould have been 2-5 at the end of October rather than 3-4. That would have made the late-season postseasn much more difficult.

COLTS 33, TEXANS 27 | November 16, 2008 | The Colts weren't struggling in November as they had been early, but the Texans still pushed them throughout this game at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Colts had 474 total yards and moved efficiently througout, but still needed a second-half rally and a game-clinching interception by S Melvin Bullitt for their third consecutive victory after a 3-4 start.

COLTS 20, TEXANS 17 | November 8, 2009 | The Texans made mistakes early and allowed Indianapolis to repeatedly moved deep into their territory. But rather than being down 21-0, they trailed just 13-0 after the Colts ran their hurry-up offense for the first quarter and a half. Having withstood Indianapolis' initital surge, Houston rallied to take a 17-13 lead and had a chance to tie the game late before Brown's field goal in the final seconds sailed left.

A COUPLE OF THOUGHTS . . .

. . . on the above list . . .

1) Notice a trend? Of the closely-contested games in this series, three were played in the last two seasons. The Texans may be having trouble right now winning the key games that gets teams into the postseason, but make no mistake: they have closed the gap on the Colts. The Colts have won the last few because they are a veteran team that believes it will win and because the Texans don't quite see themselves that way. That's the sort of edge that can be critical in division games, but it's the sort of edge that doesn't necessarily last forever.

2) Of all the Colts fourth-quarter rallies in recent seasons -- and that list includes some of the most memorable comebacks in the NFL in the last decade - I'm not sure any in the regular season tops the rally in Houston last season. The Colts not only trailed by 17 points in the final four minutes, they still trailed by 10 with Houston in possession after that. They needed not only two turnovers, and not only one of Wayne's best career catches, but they needed to return one of the turnovers for a touchdown, which MLB Gary Brackett did. In terms of improbability, it doesn't get much more so that the 2008 Colts-Texans game at Reliant Stadium.

WHY THE COLTS CAN WIN . . .

Because they believe they can, and because the Texans still may not. Houston was 5-3 this season and each of its next two games were correctly billed as the biggest in the eight-year history of the franchise. Yes, K Kris Brown missed late field goals to tie in each, but the Texans didn't quite get themselves in position where they didn't need late field goals to tie. Elite teams more often than not stay out of those situations and the Texans haven't yet reached that level.

WHY THE TEXANS CAN WIN . . .

Because they have been close to catching the Colts, and seem to be getting closer. There is enough talent on the roster to do it, and usually in that situation, the pursuing team eventually catches the pursuee. Usually. While the Tennessee Titans caught the Colts -- however briefly last season -- the Jacksonville Jaguars, despite playing the Colts tough and winning a few memorable games, never have quite caught Indianapolis despite a half-decade trying. The Texans are talented enough that eventually you think they'll break through and they certainly showed three weeks ago they were close.

MATCHUPS TO WATCH . . .

1) Texans K Kris Brown versus himself. The veteran kicker has been one of the Texans franchise's most reliable players, and he has been with them since its inception. Although he has missed potential game-tying kicks in the last two weeks, Head Coach Gary Kubiak publicly supported him this past week. As he should -- Brown is a veteran kicker with big-kick experience and there's no reason to think he won't make the next clutch kicks he faces. Still, if Brown is in a position Sunday to kick a game-winner or game-tying field goal, don't you think the past has to be on his mind?

2) Colts LT Charlie Johnson versus Texans DE Mario Williams. Colts President Bill Polian said this week that aside from Colts DE Dwight Freeney, Williams may be the NFL's best defensive end. Johnson said the reasons for that go well beyond Williams' pass rushing. His numbers aren't there with the top sacks guys this season, but Williams also is a big-time player against the run. And as Freeney will tell you, a defensive end's sacks totals aren't always a reflection of his ability or of how well he is or isn't playing. Williams, whatever his numbers, is an elite-level player who will find a way to be effective.

3) Colts TE Dallas Clark versus Texans LB Brian Cushing. This was a critical matchup in the first meeting this season, with Clark catching a career-high and franchise-record 14 passes. Considering Clark's effectiveness, it seems unlikely the Texans will try that approach again, but Baltimore last week limited Clark to one catch and it's likely teams will continue searching for ways to slow down what has become an increasingly crucial part of the Colts' offense.

QUOTABLE . . .

All we talk about is the next opponent. Obviously, this is a team that we played two weeks ago, it came down to the wire. They’ve only played one team since us. We’ve had two tough games since we played them. They’ve had a bye week in there, so they’ll be fresh. All we talk about, like I said, is just taking it one game at a time. That’s really kind of been our philosophy.

--- Colts QB Peyton Manning

THE LAST WORD . . .

This has all the signs of a brutally difficult game for the Colts. On the road. Against a team it beat by three points at home just three weeks ago. Not only have the Colts won their last four games by a total of just 10 points and had to rally in the fourth quarter of each game to do it. The Colts aren't thinking about an unbeaten seasons, but they are thinking about a division title and home-field advantage. A factor in the Colts' favor could be that the Texans have lost heartbreaking, motivation-draining games the last two games, losing on the final play of each game. If those games broke the Houston spirit, the Colts could pull away if they can get up early. The alternative is the Texans will still fight, and that could lead to the Colts' first loss of the season. That would be the bad news in this scenario for Colts fans. The good news is they would still have a three-game lead in the South and would still have a two-game lead in the AFC. WIth everyone picking a tight game and a possible Houston loss, that often leads to the result going the other way, and even though the evidence points to a close game, here's guessing the Colts win more comfortably than many might think.

WANT TO BE THE FIRST TO KNOW ABOUT THE COLTS? SUBSCRIBE TO JOHN OEHSER'S EXAMINER STORIES ABOVE

DOES PEYTON MANNING GET TOO MUCH RESPECT? HERE

MANNING: TOO EARLY TO TALK PLAYOFFS. HERE

POLIANS' CONTRACTS EXTENDED. HERE

REVIEWING BILL POLIAN'S WEEKLY RADIO SHOW

Bill Polian’s Weekly Radio Show | Part One | “Peaking not an issue for us”

Bill Polian’s Weekly Radio Show | Part Two | Media and team in parallel worlds

Bill Polian’s Weekly Radio Show | Part Three | RB Joseph Addai having “terrific year”

Bill Polian’s Weekly Radio Show | Part Four | Victory over Ravens “courageous performance”

COLTS 17, RAVENS 15. STORY. HERE

COFFEE WITH THE COLTS | COLTS-RAVENS | PART ONE. HERE

COFFEE WITH THE COLTS | COLTS-RAVENS | PART TWO. HERE.