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Wedding in Redding

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The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits.
– Albert Einstein

Education-Meetups

Sentiment

The San Francisco Money Show is again being held in August, but at a different venue - the Hilton on O'Farrell near Union Square (2 blocks southwest). Plenty of speakers and topics, not as well known as events in the past.

Thursday, opening day, features Technical Analysis gurus Brett Villaume, Hank Pruden and Martin Pring (see tsaasf.org website); Steve Sears, the Options guru of Barron's speaks early ( 8 a.m. on Friday).

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The Technical Securities Analysts Association of San Francisco is proud to announce the launch of its new Technical Analysis Certification Program, now available through the TSAA-SF website!

This self-study education platform was developed by TSAA-SF members through a partnership with Stockcharts.com and incorporates the teaching methods used by Golden Gate University professors in Technical Analysis. The curriculum is designed for the individual trader or investor who wants to learn the essentials of Technical Analysis. It uses a cohesive and sequential process to walk you step-by-step through the vast amounts of FREE information on Technical Analysis contained in the Stockcharts.comChartSchool website.

http://www.tsaasf.org/study-guide-exam

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Just as with Market Analysis, Sentiment Indicators can range from short term to intermediate to long views. One long term is money flows, which I record in my blog that I've written for over a decade at: http://mktsentiment.blogspot.com.

Each month the Investment Company Institute (ICI) reports late in the month on flows for equities and bonds (domestic and global)in ETFs, as well as CEFs (closed end funds ) and even margin debt - which is another Indicator that is not as powerful as it would seem to be. Only when MD drops does it really signal a reversal. June's results were almost a new high for MD, and a new record high for U.S. equity ETFs and Int'l (bonds were flat. Again, please see the Sentiment blog for numbers.

Mutual fund flows ( not my favorite investment vehicle) have a difficult tracking history, especially with the advent of ETFs and Index funds. Per Barron's last week, investors have still not bought into the Fed's desire for investors to switch from bonds to equities. Beverly Goodman reports via Morningstar that the past three months have seen outflows in U.S. equity funds, although Index funds increased (lower fees, better results). Vanguard seems to be the Index and ETF vehicle of choice, with xtf.com rating VNQ a 10. Also VO and IJR.

Yet the markets keep making new highs after March of '09 - stocks take the stairs up but the escalator down- as we enter the traditional Bearish time of the year in the markets -JASON (July to November). Thanks to Fed ex Machina, this has not been the case since 2012, except for occasional "buy-on-dips" hiccups. TICK, TICK, TICK

* Note: Just as my Subscribers list increases, I've had to take the next week or two off - enjoy the rest of summer!

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