Whether the controversial judging at UFC 119 left you feeling disconcerted or not, the WEC is here to pack one more great MMA event into the month of September. On Thursday night, the promotion will broadcast WEC 51 from Broomfield, CO on Versus and, as usual, it looks like it will be a barn burner.
Some of the biggest names in the WEC, and the lighter weight classes in general, will be fighting. The card is headlined by a Featherweight title fight, so I figure we should spend the next few minutes breaking down the match-ups and making some predictions.
WEC Featherweight Championship--Jose Aldo vs. Manny Gamburyan: Want to know how to put Jose Aldo's dominance into perspective? Think about this: His complete destruction of the featherweight division has been so thorough that Gamburyan is now ranked as the #2 145-pounder in the world! It's not that Gamburyan has been on a similar warpath, either. It's just that Aldo has beaten the likes of Urijah Faber and Mike Brown so thoroughly that they can no longer justifiably occupy those highest ranks. Yeah, Gamburyan had a crazy knockout over Brown, but man, Aldo is opening doors for guys who can string a couple of wins together. It sounds like I'm indirectly discrediting Gamburyan, which is not my intent, but it's pretty hard to imagine him beating Aldo at this point. The Brown knockout aside, striking with Aldo is a horrible idea. Gamburyan's best asset is his wrestling and judo combination, but Aldo has some of the best take down defense in the sport. Simply put, I expect Aldo to have his way in this fight. Guessing his game plan is a more difficult task than predicting the outcome at this point. Prediction: Jose Aldo by KO.
Lightweights--Jamie Varner vs. Donald Cerrone: I don't know about you, but I'm actually having a hard time getting excited about this re-match. The rivalry between these two is getting old, mostly because the likable one (Cerrone) hasn't been able to back any of his talk up with wins. He lost to Varner, lost to Henderson (twice) and doesn't seem to have an answer for top caliber wrestlers. Cerrone's stand-up is more exciting than Varner's, but not more effective. Varner throws more power and has nice footwork. More importantly, Varner has the ability to take the fight down, put Cerrone on his back and defend submissions. What it will probably come down to is a less than exciting three rounds of Varner controlling Cerrone from top position on the ground. Prediction: Jamie Varner by decision.
Bantamweights--Miguel Torres vs. Charlie Valencia: There's no doubt in my mind that Torres has all the skill to get back on track with a dominating win in this fight. Valencia has a nice record, but he's failed every time he's had the opportunity to face a top bantamweight. My question is whether or not Torres can shake off his last few losses and return to form. The table is set for him and I guess I'll bank on him one more time. If he doesn't capitalize, it's a great opportunity for Valencia to boost his own value. Prediction: Miguel Torres by KO.
Featherweights--Leonard Garcia vs. Mark Hominick: This is a nice one. Both of these guys are scrappers who bring it whenever and wherever they fight. Hominick is more of a ground guy, while Garcia likes to stand and trade strike for strike. For the sake of entertainment, I hope Garcia is able to defend the take down and make it a stand-up battle. If he can, he's got a good chance of landing a fight-stopping punch. If not, Garcia will probably get out-pointed on the ground. This might be more of a sentimental pick than a cerebral one, but maybe I can wish that stand-up war into reality. Prediction: Leonard Garcia by decision.
Featherweights--Mike Brown vs. Cole Province: Brown's situation is similar to Torres'. He was once considered invincible in his weight class, although is reign was not near as long. Still, Brown has fallen on hard times at the hands of the two fighters in the main event. He's been KO'd a couple of times in a row now, but that shouldn't be too much of an issue with Province, whose wins have all come by submission. Brown is a pretty good wrestler with a solid submission game. He should be able to adequately snuff Province's ground attack and make this a stand-up fight. On his feet, Brown should be able to end the fight as long as he hasn't lost the confidence to go for the finish. Prediction: Mike Brown by KO.
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