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WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, March 9, 2013 at 7:45 P.M. CT (Part 1)

Graphics for WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, March 9, 2013 at 7:45 P.M. CT (Part 1)
Graphics for WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, March 9, 2013 at 7:45 P.M. CT (Part 1)
Dundee University

TODAY'S FUN LINKS:
Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Summaries
Prepare for severe weather, urge NOAA and FEMA
USAF Studies ‘Disaggregated’ Weather Satellite Concept
New Satellite Will Provide Earlier Storm Warnings And Space Weather Prediction Remarkable Summer in Australia Is its Hottest On Record | Climate Central
California Water: From African Skies to Sierra Nevada Snow | KQED News Fix Viewing Charts for Comet Panstarrs

Storm brings heavy wet snow to Missouri Valley and strong thunderstorms from Texas into the Eastern Seaboard
NOAA/NCEP

WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)

ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
E TX....W, C LA....AR....E OK....extreme E KS....MO....SE IA....extreme W IL
extreme W KY....W TN....W MS

HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)

Scattered Locations In
E TX....W, C LA....AR....E OK....extreme E KS....MO....SE IA....extreme W IL
extreme W KY....W TN....W MS
(QPF 1 - 3")

WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for maximum temperatures below 25 deg F within the next 24 hours; snowfall in excess of 4 inches over a 24 hour period; or other frozen precipitation exceeding trace amounts)

Scattered Locations In
E CO....N, C KS....NE....extreme NW MO....W IA
(Mix To Snow; 4 - 8")

GLOBAL WEATHER SUMMARY
(a review of important weather features around the world)

IODC

Dundee University

Caught between a strong Madden-Julian Oscillation signal over the Maritime Continent and an equatorial breach/ITCZ blow-up in Africa, a mostly warmer and drier trend is noted over South Asia. Moisture is flowing from the Rift Valley into a storm over the Caspian Sea, affording the chance for thunderstorms and good air ventilation over Iran and the Gulf States. Cold conditions remain across Russia into Mongolia.

MTSAT

Digital Typhoon

Note that the MJO signal, while strong, is oriented almost exclusively into the Southern Hemisphere (with Cyclone Sandra northeast of Australia). The westerlies are active from mainland Asia and the PRC to two storms below the Aleutian Islands, but no real connection is seen with the tropics. Hence a largely progressive (mild and occasionally stormy) pattern is likely for North America in coming weeks.

GOES WEST
*
NASA

With the wide array of tropical moisture and cyclonic energy over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, there is no blocking signal evident over northwestern North America. The Kona Low complex nearing Hawaii is forecast to remain stationary, with ridging likely to build across the West through the medium range. In time, energy from that feature may combine with the northern stream and provoke a colder, wetter response over the West Coast and Intermountain Region, but probably not until the longer term.

GOES EAST

NASA

The huge storm and Norlun trough which brought impressive late-season snows to portions of Appalachia and the Northeast is still visible over the northern Atlantic Ocean. Eventually this feature will follow a similar disturbance into the British Isles with heavy precipitation and strong winds. A more complex disturbance in the High Plains is shown to interact with a subtropical jet stream from Mexico into Florida. Note that convection seems to be quieting down over South America, but tropical waves are still progressing westward through the equatorial Atlantic Ocean into Brazil and through Colombia and Venezuela.

METEOSAT

EUMETSAT

I am showing this air mass spectrum infrared image for the reason that you can clearly see the equatorial breach of the ITCZ over central and eastern Africa, and can also make out progressive tropical waves lurching westbound from the broad convective burst in the Congo Basin and Niger River delta. The strong progressive jet stream continues to deliver cold parcels and powerful storms into Europe and into the Caucasus, but these air masses are transient with quick recovery in the strong March sun angle.

SHORT RANGE OUTLOOK
(Through The Next 72 Hours)

Storm Brings Severe Weather Threat To South Central U.S. And Wet Snow To Part Of Great Plains, Upper Midwest

NASA

University Of Wisconsin Weather Server

TwisterData.Com

Plymouth State University Weather Server (2)

NOAA/NCEP

There have been more impressive storms over the past few months, but the low pressure and complex frontal structure moving out of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle Region will be notable in more than a few ways. One, this system will feature a rain to heavy wet snow scenario from the Front Range into the lower Missouri Valley on Sunday, with a brief surge of colder air through the Great Plains. Secondly, strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from MO southward into LA. The air mass in the warm sector is not likely to be very unstable, but the impressive upper dynamics should help to trigger heavy rain and cases for microbursts and hail from the Mississippi Valley into the Eastern Seaboard through Tuesday. Note also that this disturbance will be an anchor for cold advection in much of the eastern U.S. by the middle of the new week.

Building Ridge Complex Should Return Warmer, Drier Weather To The West

NASA

ECMWF

Many residents of the western half of the nation (especially California and the Desert Regions) have suffered through a chilly winter dotted with storms bringing snow to unusual locations (Arizona) along with strong to severe thunderstorms. That is about to change for the next week or so, as pronounced ridging seems likely to set up from the West Coast to the Continental Divide. Much warmer temperatures, along with clear skies, can be expected outside of the Pacific Northwest (which may be close to the storm sequence nudging eastward from the Aleutian Islands) through March 19.

Continued In Part 2....

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