TODAY'S FUN LINKS:
Flooding Is 'Worse Than Normal' in Storm-Hit Communities in New Jersey - NYT
A Busy And Head-Scratching 2012 Hurricane Season | Minnesota Public Radio News
Drought's Effects Linger Even in Winter - weather.com
WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits
C, S CA
Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits
FL Peninsula
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
Isolated Locations In
SW Coastal BC, Olympic Peninsula WA
(QPF 1 - 2")
Isolated Locations In
FL Peninsula
(QPF 1 - 2")
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for maximum temperatures below 25 deg F within the next 24 hours; snowfall in excess of 4 inches over a 24 hour period; or other frozen precipitation exceeding trace amounts)
Isolated Locations In
E ON....MI....N IN....OH....E KY....extreme W VA....WV....W PA....W, N NY....S QC
(Snow; In Squalls; 3 - 9")
Isolated Locations In
ID Panhandle....W MT....E BC....C, N AB....C SK....C MB
(Snow; 4 - 8")
Isolated Locations In
N , C CA High Sierra....NW NV
(Snow; 6 - 10")
GLOBAL WEATHER SUMMARY
(a review of important weather features around the world)
IODC
Dundee University
Colder values in Eurasia are quite evident over Russia and Mongolia, but seem to be staying above the middle latitudes for now. Note the tropical cyclone activity near the Malagasy Republic and affecting Mozambique. The eastward drift of convection associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation is allowing for quieter, warmer conditions from the Middle East through much of South Asia.
MTSAT
JMA
The eastward lurch of the MJO into the Maritime Continent is enabling some linkage of its convective array with a vast vortex southwest of the Aleutian Islands. Note that the thunderstorms are now extending to near the International Dateline, a benchmark or sorts for possible amplification of the jet stream over the North America theater. See also that much of Australia (except the western portion) seems to be under a heat ridge.
GOES WEST
NASA
What will make the storm entering the West Coast exceptionally dangerous is its deep tropical moisture connection. The array of cloudiness and thunderstorms below Hawaii is already linked to that disturbance and a subtropical jet stream cutting across Mexico into the Texas Gulf Coast. Another powerful oceanic low is evident, in association with an Aleutian mAk vortex. This feature may also have a great impact on weather forecasts (colder air drainage, heavy precipitation of varying types) through much of the lower 48 states in the 6 - 10 day time frame.
GOES EAST
NASA
Tropical convection has been exceptionally strong across South America below the Equator, with MCS and discrete supercell formation noted from northern Argentina into much of Brazil, Bolivia, and Peru. A prominent heat ridge shows up in infrared imagery over the western Atlantic Ocean, with signs of expansion/retrogression into the Bahamas and Cuba. An active subtropical jet stream is feeding into a vast storm complex centered just east of Newfoundland, while bitter cold air covers Canada.
METEOSAT
SMHI
The Saharan heat ridge shows some weaknesses over Mauritania and also across eastern Libya and Egypt. But the ridge complex still has a presence in southern Europe, and is keeping the bulk of cold air and storminess across the British Isles and Scandinavia. A bank of low clouds and fog is seen on this visible image over France and Germany. Diurnal thunderstorms are intense and numerous in areas north of the Kalahari Desert.
SHORT RANGE OUTLOOK
(Through The Next 72 Hours)
Upper Low Approaching California Brings Cold Air, Initially Only Scattered Precipitation Threats....
NASA
Plymouth State University Weather Server
ECMWF
While impressive in appearance on satellite images, the storm approaching the West Coast is not forecast to have a major precipitation impact as it moves south and east through California and Nevada during the next 24 to 48 hours. Yes, there may be locally heavy snows in some surprisingly low elevations in the Central Valley and CA deserts, and thunderstorms may be accompanied by hail and some high winds. But the importance of this particular storm is that it starts a process of building a full-latitude trough across the western two-thirds of the nation during the next 10 days. Colder air will become more and more prominent, with the nocturnal freeze line getting into S CA, S NV and parts of AZ by Tuesday morning.
....Before Turning Into Heavy Rain And Thunderstorm Producer For Texas On Tuesday As Eastern U.S. Warm-Up Is Slightly Delayed
NASA
Plymouth State University Weather Server
University Of Wisconsin Weather Server
TwisterData.Com
NOAA/NCEP
Innocuous as it may seem to Californians and Arizonans, the disturbance now edging into the West Coast will dig far south into Chihuahua State in Mexico by Tuesday. Tapping into a vast supply of warm, moist and unstable air over the western Gulf of Mexico, this disturbance will enter Texas just below the Big Bend Region late Tuesday night. Vertical motion with this feature will be very strong, and with a track roughly just north of Interstate 10 on Wednesday, torrential rainfall will unfold from just to the west of the Interstate 35 corridor into Louisiana by Thursday. If GFS and ECMWF model estimates verify, then communities can expect between 3 and 8 inches of precipitation before the low pressure area ejects into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Severe weather threats should be limited to the US 59/Interstate 69 vicinity below Livingston TX eastward into S LA. A serious storm in a regional sense, and possibly "the start of something big".
Continued In Part 2....
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