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Allan Huffman's Weather Model and Data Page - INDICES
WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
STRONG WINDS
(Pressure Gradient Derived)
E QC....NL....PEI....NB....NS
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
Scattered Locations In
NL (Western Newfoundland)....NS
(QPF 1 - 3")
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for maximum temperatures below 25 deg F within the next 24 hours; snowfall in excess of 4 inches over a 24 hour period; or other frozen precipitation exceeding trace amounts)
Scattered Locations In
E QC....PEI....NB....NL (Labrador)
(Snow; Blizzard; 4 - 16")
Isolated Locations In
C ON....W NY....W PA....WV....E OH
(Snow; In Squalls; 3 - 6")
Scattered Locations In
MT....NW ND....S, E MB....W ON
(Snow; 4 - 8")
Isolated Locations In
CA High Sierra....NV....UT....W CO....NW NM....N AZ
(Snow; Mostly Above 4000 Feet; 4 - 10")
GLOBAL WEATHER SUMMARY
(a review of important weather features around the world)
IODC
Dundee University
This IODC view tells us two things. One is that the intense cold over Siberia seems to be receding to the northeast somewhat (note the polar jet stream now well above 40 N Latitude). Secondly that the Madden-Julian oscillation is firing up but remains unconnected to the polar westerlies. The vast expanse of ridging from northern Africa through nearly all of South Asia should begin to scour out persistent cold in portions of Bangladesh and Myanmar. There is a threat for tropical cyclone formation affecting the Malagasy Republic within 72 hours.
MTSAT
JMA
JTWC (Mitchell)
JTWC (Freda)
Tropical Cyclones Mitchell (northwest tip of Australia) and Freda (Melanesia, headed toward Papua/New Guinea) are part of a continued active season for warm-core cyclogenesis over the Southern Hemisphere theater. Note also the Kelvin wave immediately to the north of Freda, which seems to be feeding some energy and moisture into the storm complex over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This is cause for some concern as the effect of tropical forcing impacts may make for colder verifications in the outlook for central and eastern North America in the longer term.
GOES WEST
NASA
Once again the storm sequence is re-appearing below the Aleutian Islands. The disturbances are acting to pump up 500MB heights over Alaska and western Canada (creating a +PNA ridge complex). At the same time the impulses are digging into California and the Desert Southwest, creating the potential for higher elevation snowfall through parts of the Intermountain Region. Note also that the threat of significant rain and ice next week over the south central and Dixie states may be attributed to these storms, which ultimately will aid in cyclogenesis over the western Gulf of Mexico.
GOES EAST
NASA
Besides the reformation of a strong subtropical jet stream into northern Mexico and Texas, another key feature is the storm exiting the East Coast. This feature will grow into a monster blizzard over eastern Canada (rain for Nova Scotia and Newfoundland Island). The deepening low pressure center will also drain colder air from the Prairie Provinces and Ontario into the eastern two-thirds of the U.S.
METEOSAT
Dundee University
The ever-present Saharan heat ridge is expanding its real north and south. The active storm track over the northern Atlantic Ocean is being forced into higher latitudes (British Isles and Scandinavia into Russia). The European subcontinent will trend warmer over the next two weeks. In Africa, diurnal convection is limited to the Rift Valley and Congo Basin, as the Kalahari subtropical high is regrouping across South Africa and Zambia.
SHORT RANGE OUTLOOK
(Through The Next 72 Hours)
After The Snow And Rain, Midwest And Northeast Chill Down And Dry Out
NASA
Plymouth State University Weather Server (2)
Once again, temperatures and surface air pressures have verified warmer and further north than forecast by the numerical models (Philadelphia PA and the southern 2/3 of New Jersey saw mostly rainfall). This disturbance will strengthen dramatically off of the coastline of New England, bringing some briefly heavy snows to the northern third of the Interstate 95 corridor. Most importantly the low should drain cold air into the Midwest and Northeast. A low pressure center taking shape in the Desert Southwest may trigger overrunning cloudiness and precipitation, acting in concert with a persistent subtropical high over the Greater Antilles. This latter feature could erase the cold air in Florida and much of the Southeast by New Year's Day.
Pacific Ocean Disturbances Target The Southwest And Texas (With Possibly Icy Results)
NASA
ECMWF
NOAA/NCEP
Since there is no real surface reflection of the upper low over the West Coast, precipitation in the Intermountain Region will be both orographic and sporadic in the near term. A question arises is just when (and how) the energy will interact with a developing frontal structure over the Texas Gulf Coast. You can make an argument that precipitation of moderate intensity, some of it in frozen form, will take shape from far northern Texas into the Ozark Plateau and lower Missouri Valley on New Year's Eve. By far the heaviest precipitation, marked by thunderstorms, is likely to target and area from west of Houston TX into central Mississippi. There is a decent chance that another wave of low pressure, this one stronger, will organize in the same vicinity on New Year's Day with rainfall spreading across the rest of the Deep South on Wednesday and Thursday.
Continued in Part 2....
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