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Weather forecast past Thanksgiving travel and Black Friday into winter

NOAA/NWS came out with their winter forecast yesterday (my preliminary outlook was issued Oct 22nd). They project most of the country to be near-normal or more specifically they say they can not make a call for most of the nation, so they give "equal chances".

They show below-normal temperatures in South Florida and the upper Midwest. For precipitation they show above-normal centered on and around Tennessee and drier than normal for North and Central California.

Most computer models show a fairly normal winter for most of the USA. A new and experimental ensemble method of National and International climate models shows a warm winter for most of the nation from December through March. All of these differ from my first winter outlook, the final version will be out no later than the start of December.

Right now it looks like here in Atlanta temperatures will be close to average for this time of year through Thanksgiving and Black Friday. And the odds of rain look small the next 10 days.

The end of the month and the first days of December look unremarkable with seasonal weather for Georgia. Then it looks like some rain by or after December 3rd as it turns cooler than normal through December 16th or so.

My outlook for December is for precipitation to average near-normal to a little above normal with temperatures near-normal to below-normal.

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