Discussion
Not one, not two, but THREE chances for important precipitation in southeastern Texas over the next eight days! Each system has a different character, and the follow-up weather pattern should change markedly from a warm, humid condition in Houston to a colder and drier outcome during the 11 - 15 day forecast time frame.
The first disturbance is unique in that it represents the first MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) of 2013. The NAM and RGEM versions suggest that a disturbance taking shape over the Rio Grande Valley will ride a northward surge of warm, moist and unstable air along and 70 miles either side of the Interstate 10 corridor (San Antonio TX to Biloxi MS) on Wednesday into Thursday. Rainfall potential in and around the Bayou City will be about 1 - 3 inches, and there is a fair chance some of the storms could produce hail and high winds with intense lightning strikes. By Friday, this feature will phase with a polar jet stream shortwave over New Jersey and set the stage for an intense blizzard (6 - 12" of snowfall, or more) affecting much of New England and New Brunswick.
Fog could be an issue locally by Thursday morning, but we should catch a break on Friday with slightly cooler and more stable air from the Ozark Plateau. However, a new and stronger storm will dig through California into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles by Saturday night. This feature should pull the tropical air mass back into Texas, with increased winds in the low-level jet stream and showers on the Afternoon of February 9. I am still forecasting a severe weather outbreak from this system as it moves from near Amarillo TX to Gary IN and then Montreal QC between February 9 - 11. parts of the lower Great Plains, Ohio Valley and most of the Old South will be targeted for hail, high wind and tornado threats until the surface cold front clears the East Coast in about a week from today. In addition, another heavy snow threat may arise from Colorado into the western Corn Belt and Upper Midwest in the cold sector of this feature.
Therein lies the root of the third and final storm in the sequence. "left behind" energy and cold air over the Intermountain Region will begin to interact with the thermal boundary as it gets hung up over the Gulf of Mexico. Using the ECMWF model as a background, wave cyclogenesis below Galveston TX will bring heavy, steady rain to the southern half of the Lone Star State before the low center accelerates along the Gulf Coast and north-northeast through the Piedmont and Atlantic Coastal Plain. Big rains along the Eastern Seaboard, a serious ice storm threat in Appalachia with wind, cold and snow in parts of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, lower Great lakes and the interior Northeast are to be expected around Valentine's Day.
Texas should be calm but chilly in the February 15 - 19 period.
Useful Links
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Lessons of the 1953 East Coast of England flood disaster
5 Big Mistakes Made During Tornado Warnings - NewsChannel5.com | Nashville News
The Forecast
Wednesday: Cloudy and humid with showers and thunderstorms developing. Thunderstorms may be heavy at times in the afternoon. Highs 69 Dobbin to 73 Brazoria
Wednesday Night: Heavy showers and thunderstorms ending by midnight. Locally dense fog developing late. Lows 60 Montgomery to 64 East Columbia
Thursday: Dense fog and drizzle in the morning; Variable cloudiness, warm and humid in the afternoon with a shower possible. Highs 73 Magnolia to 77 West Columbia
Thursday Night: Risk of a shower, drizzle and fog mainly before midnight. Partly cloudy and a bit cooler late. Lows 53 Stagecoach to 57 Guy
Friday: Partly cloudy to cloudy and mild. Highs 68 Tomball to 72 Needville
Extended Outlook
Saturday: Variable cloudiness, windy and humid with showers likely. High 76, Low 58
Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms. Some storms may be severe. High 78, Low 64
Monday: Mostly cloudy and cooler with rain developing. High 64, Low 54
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