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Weather forecast for Houston Texas and vicinity, Wednesday, March 13, 2013

The next week will be mostly dry in Texas, with next best hope for rain on March 21 - 22
The next week will be mostly dry in Texas, with next best hope for rain on March 21 - 22NOAA/NCEP

Discussion

According to the GFS model, the next chance for measurable rainfall in Houston will be around March 21 - 22. You may have noticed the increasing space between rain dates of late. And it does not take a genius to figure out that this is the time of year when precipitation amounts should be increasing in amounts and frequency (maximum rain is usually a development of afternoon and evening thunderstorms between Memorial Day and Labor Day). If we lapse into a drought, and should that dry soil area merge with the extensive aridity seen across Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina, then we are likely to experience a hellish summer from Texas through the Great Plains and much of the Old South. Drought, as we found out the past three summers, correlates well with extreme heat.

Still, there is a decent chance that the alley of excessive soil moisture could retrogress from the Mississippi River watershed into Texas and surrounding states. But every day that goes by without rain points this meteorologist toward predicting a hot summer. If analog years with a neutral ENSO signal plus negative soil moisture anomalies are a reliable predictor for our May - September outlook, then we face searing heat in June and July which is ended by one or two important tropical cyclone threats.

For now, let us "eat, drink, and be merry. For tomorrow may be hot and dry"....

Useful Links
Texas Severe Storms Association - TESSA Homepage
Storm Chasing Video Network
Roger Hill StormChase.Net
Storm Prediction Center

The Forecast

Wednesday: Sunny and mild. Highs 70 Cut And Shoot to 74 Alvin

Wednesday Night: Clear and cool. Lows 42 Security to 46 Friendswood

Thursday: Sunny and milder. Highs 73 Conroe to 77 Fresno

Thursday Night: Mostly fair with some late night fog. Lows 50 The Woodlands to 54 Pearland

Friday: Mostly sunny, breezy and warmer. Highs 76 South Houston to 80 Spring

Extended Forecast

Saturday: Partly sunny, windy, warm and more humid. High 82, Low 60

Sunday: Partly cloudy, breezy, warm, and humid. High 84, Low 65

Monday: Variable cloudiness, breezy, warm, humid with a few sprinkles. High 87, Low 69

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