Nothing like some good old Texas rock and roll from Doug Sahm to give you an idea of how local weather will be panning out over the next week or so. As low pressure moves grindingly across the Lone Star State on Wednesday, overrunning and convective rains will pound the Houston metro. In between bouts of rain will be areas of dense fog; some of the storms may have hail and a few cases of vivid lightning and high winds. Aside from driving and flooding concerns, this storm is part of a sequence which will work furiously to end the drought across Texas and other parts of the Old South. And while the rains may take a break Thursday into Friday, I can assure you that Houston's ordeal with wet weather is far from over.
The approach of a strong cold front on Thursday night will be very slow. So sluggish, in fact, that it is unlikely to fully move through the Houston metro until perhaps Sunday at dawn. First will come the thick fog banks as the atmosphere gathers moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Then as mesoscale impulses travel along the nearby thermal boundary, lifting the increasingly moist and unstable air, showers and thunderstorms will return on Saturday and Sunday. As the colder values take over, January 13 looks to be a grotesque, cloudy, windy and raw day with periods of rain and thunder.
With some luck, the rain may end on Monday morning as the initial or forerunner disturbance moves into the Tennessee Valley. But new trouble awaits by midweek, as a stronger and larger disturbance now over the eastern Pacific Ocean rolls through California and northern Mexico, likely arriving in Texas on Wednesday. I doubt that the southeastern counties will see any frozen precipitation, but that might not be the case in places like Teague, Corsicana or Palestine. Over the next eight days, both the GFS and ECMWF models print out close to 10 inches of rain in Houston.
All that, with another cold spell looming on and after January 18.
Wednesday: Periods of rain and thunderstorms. Some rain may be quite heavy with localized flooding, and a few thunderstorms may be severe. Locally dense fog is also possible. Highs 66 Livingston to 70 Galveston
Wednesday Night: Rain and thunder ending during the evening. Partial clearing followed by late night fog formation. A bit cooler. Lows 50 Shepherd to 54 Jamaica Beach
Thursday: Mostly to partly sunny after morning fog. Mild. Highs 70 Cold Spring to 74 Quintana
Thursday Night: Clear and mild with locally dense fog developing after midnight. Lows 52 Cleveland to 56 Surfside Beach
Friday: Partly cloudy, breezy, warmer and humid after morning fog. Fog and drizzle likely re-developing after sunset. Highs 73 Splendora to 77 Freeport
Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms, heavy at times. High 74, Low 62
Sunday: Cloudy and colder with periods of rain and thunderstorms. Windy in the afternoon. High 62, Low 48
Monday: Heavy rain and thunder in the morning. Cloudy, windy and cool in the afternoon. High 58, Low 42