Discussion
There IS a January Thaw in your future, Houston. Just not now! A broad, somewhat modified cold air mass will overspread the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. over the next several days, and southeastern Texas will feel the chill from this. Because of our nearness to the subtropical jet stream and a lingering upper level low in northern Mexico, the resultant occasional cloud cover may prevent the night readings fro dropping into the 20s. But nocturnal readings between 30 and 40 will be common over the next six days, with daytime highs likely running about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
The upper air pattern will shift to a trough West/ridge East alignment by late in the weekend, and I suspect that most of next week will be quite warm east of the Rocky Mountains. If the European model ensembles verify, Texas may see afternoon highs near 80 between January 8 and 12. And while that area of unseasonable warmth will likely spread into the Midwest and parts of the Eastern Seaboard, a huge disturbance over the central Pacific Ocean will be making its way through the West Coast an Intermountain Region. Many of the forecast equations take this feature into the Texas Panhandle on January 11, then progress the deep low pressure center into Lower Michigan two days later. It is this system which will start a transition in the 500MB longwave pattern, bringing the axis of a full-latitude trough complex to about 90 W Longitude. As I see it, from the mid-point of January until around Valentine's Day, temperatures over much of the lower 48 states will likely be colder than normal. With a mean storm track from northern Mexico into the Gulf Coast.
Think of the possibilities....
Useful Links
Texas Meteorological Satellite Images - GOES — Texas Commission on Environment
AHPS Precipitation Analysis Page
Precipitation Needed to End Drought
The Forecast
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, breezy and chilly with drizzle possible along the Gulf Coast late day. Highs 50 Magnolia to 54 Bayou Vista
Wednesday Night: Clearing, breezy and colder. Lows 30 Stagecoach to 34 Hitchcock
Thursday: Sunny and chilly. Highs 48 Klein to 52 Algoa
Thursday Night: Increasing cloudiness, breezy and chilly. Lows 32 Cypress to 36 Santa Fe
Friday: High cloudiness and cool. Highs 51 Addicks to 55 Alvin
Extended Outlook
Saturday: High cloudiness and cool. High 55, Low 37
Sunday: Sunny and a bit milder after a cold start. High 60, Low 32
Monday: Sunny and milder. High 69, Low 38
Comments