Discussion
The colder air pouring into Texas will prove to be transient. Over the next few days Arctic air will relax, basically confined to much of the Midwest and Northeast. But before moderation revisits the Lone Star State, we will have a very cold Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Fair skies, diminished wind and low dewpoints may enable the freeze line to sag down close to the Gulf Coast.
Despite the cold night ahead, I am convinced that winter is finished in the Houston area (and, to a large degree, the entire southern and eastern quadrants of the U.S. It may be possible that one or two intrusions of Arctic air will drop out of Canada between now and mid-February. However, the lack of any viable high-latitude blocking signatures in or around North America (despite so many computer models saying otherwise) would suggest that Spring gets an early, and very warm start.
As an example, the warming trend setting up this weekend will carry strongly into the following week, with 60s, 70s and finally 80s likely to be in play each afternoon. We may be in better shape for rainfall potential during the next few months than was the case two years ago, if only because nearby tropical forcing (eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean) could be lined up to deliver moisture and energy to much of Texas. many of the analogs to the current pattern suggest an unusually warm, humid pattern locally with lots of thunderstorms.
If you want real winter, move to Minneapolis or Chicago....
Useful Links
ECMWF CEPMMT EZMW
Plymouth State Weather Center
PSU e-WALL MEDIUM RANGE RANGE ENSEMBLE (GFS)
The Forecast
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, windy and colder. Early morning highs in the 60s falling to 58 Madisonville to 62 Port Bolivar in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night: Clear and cold with potential for a frost or freeze. Lows 30 Huntsville to 34 Crystal Beach
Thursday: Mostly sunny and milder. Highs 63 New Waverly to 67 Caplen
Thursday Night: Mostly fair and chilly. Lows 38 Willis to 42 Gilchrist
Friday: Mostly sunny; breezy and milder in the afternoon. High 65 Conroe to 69 Mont Belvieu
Extended Outlook
Saturday: Variable cloudiness and mild with a few showers. High 71, Low 48
Sunday: Partly cloudy with the risk of a morning shower. High 69, Low 53
Monday: Variable cloudiness and mild with a few showers. High 75, Low 56
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