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Weather Forecast For Houston, Texas and vicinity, Tuesday, March 5, 2013

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Discussion

The evolution of a new, warmer 500MB longwave pattern for Texas will get underway soon. So much so that the powerful storm which smacks the Corn Belt, Appalachia and the Northeast over the next 3 days will have little net effect on Houston. Skies will clear on Tuesday, and likely stay that way through most of Saturday. But after cool nights in the middle of the week, daytime highs will increase markedly, as will the relative humidity. Keep in mind that this is the time of year that cold fronts start to have less impact in the southeastern part of the Lone Star State.

A frontal structure will give SE TX a threat for thunderstorms later Sunday after a very breezy, warm day. If the ECMWF version is correct, that front may get stuck over the Bayou City through next Monday with potential for heavy rainfall and some intense convection. But I doubt much in the way of a temperature drop will occur behind that system; all signs point toward a warm, and muggy, spring in much of Texas.

It would be a good idea to familiarize yourself with the various longer term computer models (links provided). I suspect that thunderstorm and severe weather issues will be arriving soon.

Useful Links
ECMWF
MétéoCentre | Centre Météo UQAM-Montréal | Quebec | Canada
PSU e-WALL MEDIUM RANGE RANGE ENSEMBLE (GFS)
NCEP MODEL ANALYSES AND GUIDANCE

The Forecast

Tuesday: Partly sunny early; then sunny, breezy and cooler. Highs 69 Panorama Village to 73 South Houston

Tuesday Night: Clear and cool. Lows 46 Conroe to 50 Friendswood

Wednesday: Sunny and mild. Highs 71 The Woodlands to 75 Webster

Wednesday Night: Clear and cool. Lows 48 Spring to 52 League City

Thursday: Mostly sunny and a bit warmer. Highs 75 La Marque to 79 Tomball

Extended Outlook

Friday: Mostly sunny after morning fog; breezy by late day. Warmer. High 80, Low 56

Saturday: Partly cloudy, breezy, warm and humid. High 84, Low 62

Sunday: Variable cloudiness, windy, warm and humid. A few showers during the day, but strong thunderstorms possible in the evening. High 85, Low 68

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