Discussion
Yes, it really did touch 90 degrees (F) in quite a bit of the Houston metro on Monday afternoon. And while there will likely be a downturn in temperature over the next day or so, we are not done with warmth. The cold air that is much talked about seems a little less intense, and for the most part will occupy the Midwest, Appalachia and the Eastern Seaboard. The Lone Star State will not likely see any appreciable drop in readings until Palm Sunday.
A vigorous storm over the eastern Pacific Ocean will dig south and east into the Texas Panhandle by Friday. As our (rotten) luck would have it, the disturbance should introduce very dry Mexican air at the midlevels, capping convection in locations below Interstate 20. A shower or thunderstorm could develop in Houston, but meaningful rainfall is unlikely in the metro area as the low pressure center and frontal structure makes a close pass, through the Red River Valley. It appears that the gyre will put a brutal beatdown from the "Arklatex" vicinity through much of Dixie (especially the Interstate 10 corridor from near Baton Rouge LA into Jacksonville FL, and about 150 miles north of that path). The capped atmosphere, however, implies no important rains locally; just hot, windy and humid. Then the cold front arrives Saturday night, introducing nice, mild and (groan) dry conditions on Sunday and Monday.
We need the rain, folks....
Useful Links
UW-Madison Department of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences
Plymouth State Weather Center
NCEP MODEL ANALYSES AND GUIDANCE
The Forecast
Tuesday: Variable cloudiness, breezy, cooler. Highs 75 Madisonville to 79 Texas City
Tuesday Night: Cloudy, breezy with showers and perhaps a thunderstorm late. A severe thunderstorm is possible above Texas 30. Lows 56 Huntsville to 60 Kemah
Wednesday: Gradual clearing and cooler. Highs 70 Trinity to 74 Seabrook
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy and mild. Lows 54 Onalaska to 58 Clear Lake
Thursday: Partly cloudy, windy, warmer, more humid. Highs 80 Pasadena to 84 Livingston
Weekend Forecast
Friday: Variable cloudiness, windy, warm and humid. Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm. High 86, Low 68
Saturday: Partly cloudy, windy, hot and humid. A strong to severe thunderstorm is possible along and north of Texas 105. High 91, Low 72
Sunday: Sunny, windy, cooler and less humid. High 69, Low 48
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