Discussion
I admit that winter can be a tough season for me to deal with. Things like Arctic air, snow and ice, routinely bypass southeastern Texas while my former stomping grounds such as Chicago IL, New York NY and Philadelphia PA may be visited by outrageous amounts of cold and violent winter storms. Yes, there is something to be said about lighter electric bills and less back strain (from not shoveling snow). But the concept of winter loses something when the best you can hope for are a couple of nights below freezing and maybe a rogue chance of flurries or sleet at the back end of a precipitation event.
Wistful memories and whining aside, Houston again looks to stay away from the action "up north". Bitter cold values will control the Midwest and Northeast through the next week or so, while only a modest cold frontal passage with a thunderstorm chance visits the Bayou City on Friday. I would be careful about travel plans from Thursday night into Saturday morning from the Corn Belt into the northern half of the Interstate 95 corridor (say above Richmond VA), where sleet, freezing rain and moderate/heavy snow seem likely in the January 25 - 26 time frame.
A more menacing storm may provide a severe thunderstorm and heavy rainfall threat to Houston around January 29. Cyclogenesis in the Texas Panhandle will be followed by a push of Arctic air (for real!), and my current call is for the January 30 - February 5 period to be very cold for the eastern two-thirds of the Lone Star State (with major winter storm risks in the Midwest, Appalachia and the Eastern Seaboard).
We just might get a dose of real January and February conditions. And I will be happy about that!
Useful Links
ECMWF
NCEP MODEL ANALYSES AND GUIDANCE
PSU e-WALL MEDIUM RANGE RANGE ENSEMBLE (GFS)
The Forecast
Tuesday: Partly cloudy and mild. Highs 62 Winnie to 66 El Campo
Tuesday Night: Mostly fair and cool with late night fog. Lows 41 Hankamer to 45 Columbus
Wednesday: Partly sunny and mild. Highs 69 Wimberley to 73 Eagle Lake
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy and mild with patchy fog late. Lows 46 Anahuac to 50 Hungerford
Thursday: Partly sunny and warm. Highs 74 Wallisville to 78 East Bernard
Weekend Outlook
Friday: A shower or thunderstorm in the morning; then clearing, breezy and colder. High 64, Low 42
Saturday: Sunny and cool. High 60, Low 38
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a few showers. High 62, Low 47
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