Discussion
If anything, this forecast solves some rainfall needs for Texans. But the caveat supplied is that familiar line, "be careful what you wish for". Because chances for rain also will imply potential for thunderstorms, some of which could be very strong. There will be three periods where heavy precipitation may occur: Wednesday, Sunday and Tuesday. In each case, 1 - 2 inches of moisture could accrue, which would go a long way to erasing the soil water deficits that date back to the summer of 2010.
Fog will also be a concern due to increasing dewpoints and the nearness of a weak frontal structure (draped along the Gulf Coast, easing north and south about the Houston metro). Visibility may fall to zero at times, with the highest likelihood of poor travel conditions between midnight and 9 A.M. over the next several days.
Instability, combined with spikes in vertical motion,may allow for some intense convection along/just north, and south of the Interstate 10 corridor (San Antonio TX to New Orleans LA) on Wednesday afternoon and night. Thursday and Friday do not look particularly threatening, as a somewhat cooler air mass may push the temperature boundary into the Gulf of Mexico for a time. But on Saturday, a far stronger center of low pressure will move into the southern/central High Plains, inducing a northward drift of the very warm and buoyant air mass. Showers will turn into a bona fide severe weather threat from Texas into southern Kansas, with cold and snow enveloping communities from the central/northern Rocky Mountains through the Upper Midwest.
Once again, the thermal boundary should stall south of the Gulf Coast early next week. Additional energy and cold air in the 500MB trough over the Southwest will spawn another strong storm near Galveston TX, which I expect will progress north-northeast along the spine of the Appalachian Mountains in a February 13 - 15 time frame. This system may bring more of a stratiform type of rain (perhaps an embedded thunderstorm for good measure), then bring in very chilly air to all of Texas in the latter half of next week.
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The Forecast
Tuesday: Variable cloudiness and mild after locally dense fog in the morning. Highs 72 Galveston to 76 Onalaska
Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy and humid with locally dense fog. Lows 56 Trinity to 60 Jamaica Beach
Wednesday: Showers and thunderstorms, heavy at times. Some of the storms could approach severe limits. Highs 70 Pumpkin to 74 Quintana
Wednesday Night: Showers and thunderstorms, heavy at times, ending after midnight. Dense fog likely late. Lows 60 Cold Spring to 64 Surfside Beach
Thursday: Variable cloudiness after morning fog. Mild. Highs 73 Cleveland to 77 Clute
Weekend Outlook
Friday: Variable cloudiness after morning fog. A few showers are possible. High 67, Low 56
Saturday: Mostly cloudy, breezy and becoming humid with showers in the afternoon. High 70, Low 55
Sunday: Thunderstorms, possibly heavy to severe. Warm and humid. High 78, Low 60
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