Discussion
The hail which fell over parts of Houston on Monday may be repeated on Tuesday morning as low pressure builds across South Texas and heads into the Arklatex during the afternoon hours. The atmosphere is unstable enough for strong thunderstorms, with cold profiles in the upper levels and a high moisture content. Once this feature moves east-northeast and away from Houston, cooler and drier air should take over through Friday. The nights may be chilly, but the higher sun angle will help keep daytime highs near, then above, 60 degrees F.
On Saturday, an Arctic front will pass through Houston. This feature may provide a few showers on Saturday morning, followed by gusty north winds carrying much colder temperatures. Later on, the trough associated with the cold dome may pick up moisture from the tropics (see the GOES EAST FULL DISK to watch for this phenomena; note the immense tropical wave complex covering much of South America). If so, the chances for a major winter storm affecting the East Coast will increase markedly this weekend.
As cold as it may be on Sunday morning (our last chance to go below freezing for this season), the storm track will revert further north next week. So much so that by President's Day itself, clouds, showers and mild air are likely visitors to Houston. Computer models suggest ongoing bouts of thunderstorms along the western Gulf Coast through the first two weeks of March, with temperatures and relative humidity increasing markedly.
Spring is just around the corner!
Useful Links
Reading between the clouds: New lightning data improves early warnings -- GCN
Winter_Storm_Tracks
Equatorial Waves (By Kyle MacRitchie, SUNY Graduate Student)
The Forecast
Tuesday: Heavy rain and thunderstorms in the morning; mostly cloudy and cooler in the afternoon. Highs 57 Hempstead to 61 Mont Belvieu
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, breezy and colder. Lows 36 Field Store to 40 Crystal Beach
Wednesday: Sunny and cool. Highs 56 Hockley to 60 Caplen
Wednesday Night: Clear and cool. Lows 38 Macedonia to 42 Gilchrist
Thursday: Mostly sunny and milder. Highs 63 Rose Hill to 67 Port Bolivar
Holiday Weekend Outlook
Friday: Partly sunny and mild. High 71, Low 48
Saturday: Showers early; then partial clearing, windy and sharply colder. High 60 (early A.M.), Low 36 (evening)
Sunday: Sunny and chilly. Some increase in cloudiness late day. High 54, Low 30
Monday, President's Day: Mostly cloudy, breezy and milder with a few showers. High 64, Low 47
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