Discussion
Southeastern Texas has largely dodged the bullet recently with respect to extreme weather. A vicious blizzard struck the Panhandle counties, and severe thunderstorms struck locations east of the Bayou City on Sunday and Monday. The storm which triggered the inclement conditions will be moving into the Midwest, and in its wake generally clear and calm conditions are likely to hold over the next week throughout the Lone Star State.
But we must include the word "chilly" in any discussion as readings into the weekend will likely be well below seasonal normals. A prominent 500MB trough will set up from central Canada into Florida, with the flow of northwest winds aloft out of the Prairie Provinces driving a polar air mass into the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. That is a dry configuration for Houston, but with fair skies and a low dewpoint scenario, night readings could dip into the upper 30s close to the city.
Because the blocking signals in Greenland and Alaska are fairly weak, the jet stream configuration should stay progressive. By Sunday, a shortwave ridge will start to move out of the Desert Regions into the lower and middle Great Plains. If the European model is correct, the early portion of next week will be quite a bit warmer, staying largely free of clouds and precipitation. I am less certain about the pattern after next Wednesday, which quite a few of the computer models say will be cold. The lack of contribution of tropical forcing to the polar westerlies argues for a mainly warm/mild set-up locally, with a storm track above 40 N Latitude. That is why I think the predictions will shift in a warmer direction after March 6.
Useful Links
National Hourly RAP Analyses and Forecasts
TwisterData.com | Weather Data & Model Forecasts
PSU e-WALL MEDIUM RANGE RANGE ENSEMBLE (GFS)
The Forecast
Tuesday: Sunny and mild. Highs 63 Cleveland to 67 Hitchcock
Tuesday Night: Clear and chilly. Lows 39 Splendora to 43 Santa Fe
Wednesday: Sunny, breezy and a bit cooler. Highs 56 Patton Village to 60 Alvin
Wednesday Night: Clear, breezy and chilly. Lows 36 New Caney to 40 Friendswood
Thursday: Sunny, breezy and cool. Highs 57 Kingwood to 61 South Houston
Weekend Outlook
Friday: Sunny and chilly. High 58, Low 37
Saturday: Mostly sunny and cool. High 63, Low 39
Sunday: Mostly sunny and mild. High 70, Low 42
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