I noticed that the computer models have been moving away from solutions favoring widespread cold during the remainder of March. Indeed, there are signs of two strong warming events which will occupy Texas over the next two weeks, as the tendency for semizonal flow gives way to a slight trough West/ridge Central and East alignment. The big question mark: how will the impressive storm sequence over the northern Pacific Ocean play out?
The impulse now over the Gulf of Alaska should break into two separate disturbances this weekend. One portion will dig toward the "Four Corners" vicinity while the northern branch progresses toward the Missouri Valley and Great Lakes. Since there will be three days' worth of moisture advection from the Gulf of Mexico, and because dry and cold parcels will intersect over the state with wave cyclogenesis, strong or severe thunderstorms may occur on Sunday afternoon and evening.
But the "nice, mild, and dry routine looks likely to return for most, if not all, of next week. I do see another important storm threat arising around St. Patrick's Day, again from a system diving out of the Aleutian Islands.
Thursday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs 74 Bayou Vista to 78 Klein
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, breezy and milder. Lows 56 Stagecoach to 60 Hitchcock
Friday: Variable cloudiness, breezy and more humid. Highs 78 Santa Fe to 82 Magnolia
Friday Night: Variable cloudiness, breezy and more humid. Lows 61 Montgomery to 65 Alvin
Saturday: Variable cloudiness, windy, warm and humid. A few showers are possible. Highs 80 Fresno to 84 Dobbin
Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms. Some storms may be of heavy or severe intensity. High 83, Low 66
Monday: Partly sunny, breezy and cooler. High 66, Low 48
Tuesday: Sunny and mild. High 74, Low 46