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Weather forecast for Houston Texas and vicinity, Thursday, March 21, 2013

An intense storm moving through the Red River Valley may bring severe thunderstorms to the eastern third of Texas (and much of Dixie)
An intense storm moving through the Red River Valley may bring severe thunderstorms to the eastern third of Texas (and much of Dixie)
University Of Wisconsin Weather Server

Discussion

Yes, the cooler and less humid air on Wednesday was a delusion, of sorts. With the development of a deep storm over the West Coast, winds from Texas and the Great Plains will shift to strong southerly off of the Gulf of Mexico. The upper flow will be from the hot, dry interior (Chihuahua State), and dynamics should be lacking. So if any rain is going to fall in the immediate future, intensity would be quite light and the location of said rain scattered. Some locations south and west of Houston have a decent chance of reaching, or surpassing, 90 deg F for the highest temperature on Friday and Saturday.

If a thick atmospheric cap does not extend into Houston (a close call at this point in time), then severe thunderstorm risks may be fairly high on Saturday. The center of a deepening storm will likely move along the Red River Valley, with an active warm front extending eastward through the Deep South (probably between the Interstate 20 and Interstate 10 corridors). Dixie will be hammered by large hail, torrential rainfall, strong winds and tornadoes from this feature before the surface low pressure center regroups over the Virginia Capes on Palm Sunday evening. Snowfall may also be heavy in a band from Colorado through the "Heartland" into the lower Great Lakes. There is still some chance (not great, though) that a redevelopment scenario could wallop parts of the Northeast with a heavy wet snowfall on Sunday night into Monday morning.

The key issue for most living east of the Continental Divide through next week will be the cold. Texas will cool appreciably behind the cold front on March 24, and likely will stay with below normal values through at least Wednesday. But the worst of this late season cold snap will undoubtedly occur in the Midwest, Appalachia and Eastern Seaboard, where some localities may have the coldest March averages in recorded history.

I should not have listened to the Groundhog.....

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The Forecast

Thursday: Variable cloudiness, windy, warmer and more humid by afternoon. Highs 80 Galveston to 84 Satsuma

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, breezy, humid with drizzle or light rain showers after midnight. Lows 63 Jersey Village to 67 Bayou Vista

Friday: Variable cloudiness, very warm and humid. A shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 85 Jamaica Beach to 89 North Houston

Friday Night: Variable cloudiness, very warm and humid. A shower or thunderstorm is possible. Lows 69 Spring to 73 Quintana

Saturday: Variable cloudiness, breezy, rather warm and humid. Scattered thunderstorms; a severe storm is possible along and east of Interstate 45 and north of Interstate 10. Highs 87 Surfside Beach to 91 Conroe

Extended Forecast

Sunday: Mostly fair, breezy and cooler. High 64, Low 48

Monday: Sunny and cool. High 62, Low 43

Tuesday: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. High 63, Low 38

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