Discussion
From an obtuse angle this might seem like a pretty bland forecast. Mild, some clouds and fog and a few cursory chances at showers. Basically nothing serious. But there are changes which lurk behind this outlook which will give a colder perspective to the Houston outlook, and very likely a wetter, stormier condition as well.
For now all of the "true" winter weather is across the Midwest and the Northeast. Very cold temperatures cannot move far to the south with a mostly westerly flow aloft, and the weak snow-making disturbances are headed due eastward with little development. Even with a weak frontal structure sneaking through much of Texas on Friday night, readings in the Bayou City will be no worse than normal for the weekend. And then temperatures will likely turn warmer early next week ahead of a deep storm moving out into the Texas Panhandle.
It appears that system will supply a "seismic shift" in Texas weather. First will be the strong thunderstorm threat on Wednesday, then a resounding drop in temperature (can you say, "Blue Norther") by next Thursday morning. Once the colder air takes over late next week, the numerical models suggest that the chill will stick around town into mid-February, perhaps accompanied by a storm or two. Keep in mind that in an ENSO-neutral year, however, strong and lasting warm-ups usually take place in Texas and the Old South by the third week of next month. Bottom line: if you like the idea of being colder, relish it because our spring is likely to be early, quite warm and humid.
Useful Links
Precipitation Needed to End Drought (USA)
Houston Climate Normals By Month
Houston TX Temperature And Precipitation Graph
The Forecast
Thursday: Partly sunny and mild after morning fog. Highs 74 Galveston to 78 Hempstead
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy with patchy dense fog. Lows 52 Prairie View to 56 Jamaica Beach
Friday: Partly sunny and mild. Highs 75 Quintana to 79 Waller
Friday Night: Variable cloudiness with patchy fog and isolated showers. Lows 53 Hockley to 57 Surfside Beach
Saturday: Mostly cloudy and a little cooler with early fog and a few showers. Highs 63 Rose Hill to 67 Chocolate Bayou
Extended Outlook
Sunday: Variable cloudiness, breezy and mild with a few showers. High 70, Low 52
Monday: Variable cloudiness, breezy and mild with a few showers. High 76, Low 57
Tuesday: Variable cloudiness, breezy and mild with a few showers. High 78, Low 61
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