Discussion
It is kind of fitting justice for this winter season that the same disturbance which under-performed in Houston with rainfall may give New England a historic blizzard (Friday and Saturday). I only mention this because there may be massive air travel delays along the Interstate 90 and 95 corridors this weekend, since strong winds and up to 3 feet of snow are bound to close more than a few airports (Albany, New Haven, Providence, Boston and Portland, to name a few).
High humidity and fog are the issues that southeastern Texas will be dealing with in much of the next 72 hours. Friday should actually be pretty nice, but the flow off of the Gulf of Mexico returns fog to the coast by Saturday morning. The arrival of a strong storm into the High Plains will provide potential for gusty winds and showers on Saturday.
I suspect that the low which takes shape over Colorado this weekend will turn out to have larger impacts than the blizzard which slams New England. I say this because the storm could produce its own heavy snow and wind display across the Upper Midwest while churning out a severe weather outbreak from the lower Great Plains into the Ohio Valley and Old South in the Sunday to Monday period. For Houston, the best potential for intense convection should be early on February 10. Then a slight respite occurs on Monday before a third disturbance starts to organize along the western shoreline of the Gulf of Mexico.
It looks to me that the Tuesday precipitation event will be a heavy stratiform rain with a thunderstorm threat or two thrown in. The GFS version looks to have the right idea by bringing the chill back into Texas behind this system, with night readings in the 30s next Wednesday and Thursday.
Useful Links
UW-Madison Department of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences
ECMWF CEPMMT EZMW
Plymouth State Weather Center
The Forecast
Thursday: Partly cloudy, mild and humid after morning fog. Highs 73 Cleveland to 77 Juliff
Thursday Night: Some fog, then partly cloudy and a bit cooler. Lows 55 Splendora to 59 Sienna Plantation
Friday: Partly sunny and not as humid. 72 Patton Village to 76 Fresno
Friday Night:Clear and mild with coastal fog likely late. Lows 51 Roman Forest to 55 Missouri City
Saturday: Variable cloudiness, windy, mild and humid with a few showers. Highs 75 New Caney to 79 Pearland
Extended Outlook
Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms, possibly heavy to severe, ending by early afternoon. Clearing by late day. High 74, Low 56
Monday: Cloudy and cooler with light rain and drizzle developing. High 62, Low 49
Tuesday: Heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms likely. High 58, Low 48
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