Discussion
There are changes occurring in the upper atmosphere over Canada and the northern Pacific Ocean, and these shifts may culminate in a turnabout from a cool-to-chilly, dry near term to a much warmer and wetter forecast next week.
As a first order of business, a polar air mass will infiltrate far to the south, likely reaching the Rio Grande Valley and Gulf of Mexico by Friday. Northerly winds are a cold and dry direction, so skies are likely to stay mostly fair. Night readings may reach the 30s. Frost, however, is not a given; enough of a pressure gradient should exist to keep wind speeds above 10 mph through Friday night. For frost to form on plant surfaces, a calm condition with fair skies and low dewpoints is necessary. But a secluded windshield may have some ice rime accumulation, so keep the scraper handy.
Since the wind fields aloft are essentially progressive (not truly blocked) across North America, our excursion into "reminders of winter" will prove to be short-lived. Southerly winds will advance across Texas on Sunday, and could be quite gusty as we start the new work week. A storm cutting across the Missouri Valley may be a factor in weather along the East Coast (possible wind, snow and cold effects) but should largely bypass the bayou City. Instead, another deep trough and storm will become anchored along the West Coast, implying that much of the first week of March in the Lone Star State will be on the warm side. In addition, the longer term computer models are much more aggressive with bringing moisture in from the equatorial regions, with impressive potential for heavy rain and thunderstorms around March 9 - 11.
Useful Links
UW-Madison Department of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences
ECMWF CEPMMT EZMW
PSU e-WALL MEDIUM RANGE RANGE ENSEMBLE (GFS)
The Forecast
Thursday: Sunny, breezy and cool. Highs 56 Corrigan to 60 Bay City
Thursday Night: Clear, breezy and cold. Lows 36 Shepherd to 40 Wharton
Friday: Mostly sunny, breezy and unusually chilly. Highs 54 Onalaska to 58 Brazoria
Friday Night: Clear, breezy and cold. Lows 33 Trinity to 37 East Columbia
Saturday: Sunny and cool. Highs 57 Pumpkin to 61 West Columbia
Extended Outlook
Sunday: Mostly sunny and milder. High 67, Low 39
Monday: Variable cloudiness, breezy and much warmer. High 77, Low 49
Tuesday: A few sprinkles possible early; then partly cloudy, breezy and pleasant. High 69, Low 47
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