Discussion
With the storm over the middle Missouri Valley starting to weaken, it will probably take an additional one or two upper shortwaves to completely drive out the cold front trudging through Texas. The severe thunderstorm risk should quit during Thursday afternoon as cooler and more stable values arrive from the north and west. But with the temperature shift hovering around the Gulf Coast into Friday, some pockets of drizzle or showers may persist, particularly close to the shoreline (or at least below Interstate 10).
I think we will have a nice start to the weekend, with fair and mild conditions between Friday evening and daybreak on Sunday. But, following the 500MB longwave pattern that we are in, another storm (accompanied by input from a southern branch jet stream) will spread cloudiness, showers and thunderstorms later on February 25 into the following Monday. With another quick dose of blue sky scheduled for next Tuesday, it appears that the strongest disturbance in the series (now below the Aleutian Islands) will dig into Texas on February 28.This system could be a huge headache for the eastern half of the nation, but for us will likely bring another dose of strong convection followed by perhaps four days of very chilly temperatures. And yes, I think it impacts the Midwest, Appalachia and much of the Northeast with an impressive snow and ice event.
Stay tuned....
Useful Links
Rapid Refresh (RAP)
UW-Madison Department of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences
ECMWF
NCEP MODEL ANALYSES AND GUIDANCE
PSU e-WALL MEDIUM RANGE RANGE ENSEMBLE (GFS)
The Forecast
Thursday: Variable cloudiness with showers and thunderstorms, some of heavy to severe intensity, ending by late afternoon. Highs 71 Spring to 75 Iowa Colony
Thursday Night: Variable cloudiness with a few lingering showers or pockets of drizzle close to the Gulf Coast. Lows 51 Tomball to 55 Arcola
Friday: Showers during the morning; then partial clearing and cooler in the afternoon. Highs 62 Rose Hill to 66 Sienna Plantation
Friday Night: Clear and cool. Lows 45 Cypress to 49 Missouri City
Saturday: Sunny and cool. Highs 64 Addicks to 68 Stafford
Extended Outlook
Sunday: Increasing cloudiness, breezy and humid with showers and thunderstorms in late afternoon. High 69, Low 50
Monday: Thunderstorms in the morning, possibly of heavy to severe intensity. Clearing in late day. High 74, Low 58
Tuesday: Sunny and mild. High 70, Low 48
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