Discussion
The chill you awaken to on Thursday will quickly dissipate, and for the most part the Houston area forecast is quite mild, and getting milder. Arctic air will dominate the Midwest and Northeast, likely staying away from Texas. But the rise in temperature will be slow. And as the atmosphere warms, the constant southerly flow that sets up off of the Gulf of Mexico will return higher dewpoints to southeastern Texas. Enough energy may advance via the subtropical jet stream (using the equatorial Pacific Ocean as a moisture source) to increase chances for clouds and a few showers off and on from Saturday through the middle of next week.
I suspect that most of our forecast through the next 12 days will be in the mild or warm spectrum. There are no signs of high-latitude blocking, and tropical forcing mechanisms are oriented in such a way as to deliver moisture to Texas and adjacent states while not enhancing the amplitude of the jet stream. It would appear that the vigorous storm sequence across the northern Pacific Ocean will be the biggest player in the extended outlook. Believe me when I say that the synoptic charts for the 11 - 15 day period look more like April than February. The computer models seem to be pointing toward a particularly menacing storm and trough complex tracking from the Front Range of CO to the Eastern Townships Of QC around February 9 - 13. If what I am seeing is correct, there could be a genuine severe weather event or outbreak from the lower and middle Great Plains through the Corn Belt and Old South. With snow and ice chances limited to the likes of Minneapolis MN and Sault Ste. Marie MI.
Maybe cold air will filter in behind that system, but I emphasize that for Texas and much of the eastern two-thirds of the U.S., winter can be compared to bread heated for 60 seconds. It's toast.
Useful Links
Current Climate Summary Maps - Powered by ACIS - High Plains Regional Climate
US Drought Monitor
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The Forecast
Thursday: Sunny and mild after a cold start. Highs 60 Panorama Village to 64 Clute
Thursday Night: Clear and cold. Lows 35 Montgomery to 39 Lake Jackson
Friday: Mostly sunny and milder. Highs 64 Dobbin to 68 Angleton
Friday Night: Partly cloudy and not as cold. Lows 42 Magnolia to 46 Juliff
Saturday: Variable cloudiness and milder with a few showers. Highs 69 Stagecoach to 73 Sienna Plantation
Extended Outlook
Sunday: Variable cloudiness and mild. High 70, Low 54
Monday: Variable cloudiness, breezy and mild with a few showers. High 74, Low 57
Tuesday: Variable cloudiness, breezy and humid with a few showers. High 77, Low 60
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