Yes, we need some rain. Although the fearsome drought of 2011 is long past, much of Texas west of US 59 needs anywhere from 4 to 8 inches of precipitation to solve the deficiency in the water budget. The prospect of heavy rainfall is largely missing from the forecast until next Sunday, when we have a decent shot at heavy thunderstorms with a deepening storm and cold front moving through Texas and Oklahoma. Until then, it is a dry outlook with temperatures trending slowly upward.
On Monday ahead of a weak cold front (all of the energy with the system will be hitting the Midwest, then Appalachia and the Mid-Atlantic region with heavy wet snow), gusty southerly winds will help to introduce dry air at midlevels while making the boundary layer fairly humid. After a warm day, the cold frontal passage will yield somewhat cooler, but still very mild, conditions that should last until Thursday.
The warm-up for next weekend may be of a longer-lasting variety, as upper level wind forecasts through much of March appear unfavorable for any meaningful cold advection outside of the western U.S. and (perhaps) New England. Some very cold values are forecast to dig into California and the Desert Southwest in late week, but the process looks to be slow. So much so that our chances in Texas to see important rainfall and strong thunderstorms are likely to hold off unto Sunday and/or Monday.
Monday Night: Partly cloudy and mild. Lows 56 Hempstead to 60 Jamaica Beach
Tuesday: Sunny, breezy and cooler. Highs 67 Field Store to 71 Quintana
Tuesday Night: Clear and cool. Lows 44 Hockley to 48 Surfside Beach
Wednesday: Sunny and mild. Highs 71 Macedonia to 75 Freeport
Thursday: Mostly sunny and mild. High 77, Low 49
Friday: Partly cloudy and a bit warmer. High 80, Low 54
Saturday: Variable cloudiness, windy, warmer and more humid. A brief shower is possible. High 83, Low 59