Texas is leading somewhat of a charmed life as of now, dodging severe thunderstorm threats across the Mid-South and Southeast this week as well as emerging heavy snow possibilities for the Front Range of Colorado and portions of Appalachia. For the most part, the Lone Star State remains out of winter's grip, and the potent upper dynamics and instability zones will be off to our north and east.
The entire weather pattern across the nation is puzzling in one respect: what in heck happened to spring? I will be the first to admit that despite analog outlooks favoring warmer weather nationwide after a cold start seem largely a distant memory, replaced this weekend by much colder profiles and the threat for a significant storm early next week. The system taking shape on Monday into Tuesday may trigger some respectable snowfall totals in the Great Lakes, but as of now does not look strong enough to "force the issue" of cold air drainage into Texas until next Sunday. By that time, the upper level wind flow may be changing (with less blocking near Baffin Island) to offer only a slight drop in readings in Houston.
A real bummer about the alignment of the upper air is that it seems unlikely that Texas will receive any appreciable widespread rainfall through the remainder of the month. The second issue of concern: the introduction of colder air beginning March 23. If the GFS series at 0z March 18 is correct, all but California will fall under the influence of falling temperatures.
Why couldn't we see this jet stream configuration during the heart of winter? :(
Monday: Partly sunny, warm and humid. Highs 85 Galveston to 89 Addicks
Monday Night: Clear, cooler and less humid. Lows 49 Satsuma to 53 Bayou Vista
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and mild. Highs 71 Jersey Village to 75 Hitchcock
Tuesday Night: Increasing cloudiness, breezy and cool with a few sprinkles. Lows 48 Cypress to 52 Santa Fe
Wednesday: Sprinkles or drizzle early; variable cloudiness, becoming breezy late day.
Thursday: Cloudy, windy with a few showers. Highs 75, Low 56
Friday: Cloudy, breezy, warm and humid. A few showers and a thunderstorm could occur. High 86, Low 65
Saturday: Variable cloudiness. Warm, humid with the risk of a shower or thunderstorm. High 85, Low 68