Discussion
I am sure that many have bemoaned the lack of precipitation in Texas, and in fact there are quite a few parts of the state that are experiencing a crippling drought. But there is an old saying "Be careful what you wish for...." that may well apply to a very wet forecast for almost the entirety of the Lone Star State. Rain is coming, and lots of it. If the computer models are correct, we may see so much rain over the next 72 hours as to send most of the counties between the Red River and the Rio Grande from "drought" to "flood" status.
You would not know this by looking at the Monday outlook, which at worst may feature some increasing cloudiness in late day. But a 500MB low moving through northern Mexico, working against a subtropical high over Cuba, should start to pull up moisture and initiate coastal frontogenesis along the northern rim of the Gulf of Mexico during the wee hours of Tuesday. I am still not sure of the track of this disturbance, but leaning toward a more gradual recurvature of the GFS, GGEM and ECMWF series that would bring the strongest lifting/forcing into the eastern two-thirds of Texas by Tuesday night and Wednesday. The NAM scheme is adamant that western and central Texas will be inundated by overrunning and convective rains, with only two bursts of precipitation in and around Houston.
The presence of such powerful dynamics, unstable air (there remains the possibility of a few severe thunderstorms before the disturbance exits the region on Thursday morning) and slow motion with complex frontal structures will support 3 to 9 inches of rainfall in much of Texas (as well as parts of Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Louisiana). Drier air should return Thursday afternoon. But the cold front looks to stall, and reverse by late Friday. And a new system, probably far larger and stronger than the midweek storm, is expected to bring renewed potential for heavy showers and thunderstorms to Houston during Saturday and Sunday.
Yes, we do need the rain....
Useful Links
4.0 km WRF-NMM Precipitation Graphics
UW-Madison Department of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences
NCEP MODEL ANALYSES AND GUIDANCE
The Forecast
Monday: Mostly sunny and mild with some increase in clouds late in the day. Highs 66 Security to 70 Brazoria
Monday Night: Cloudy. Becoming breezy after midnight with areas of fog, drizzle and light rain. Lows 50 Conroe to 54 East Columbia
Tuesday: Cloudy, breezy with periods of rain. Thunderstorms are possible late in the day. Highs 63 Montgomery to 67 West Columbia
Tuesday Night: Heavy rain and thunderstorms. Localized flooding is possible south and west of Houston. Lows 56 Dobbin to 60 Guy
Wednesday: Heavy rain and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may approach severe limits, and urban and small stream flooding seems probable. Highs 69 Plantersville to 73 Needville
Extended Outlook
Thursday: Gradual clearing and mild. High 72, Low 56
Friday: Dense morning fog; mostly cloudy with drizzle and light rain likely in the afternoon. High 65, Low 51
Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms, heavy at times. High 76, Low 59
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