Discussion
Judging by trends in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, chances for important rainfall will be increasing in Houston over the next two weeks. A disturbance and moisture axis west of Baja California will move through northern Mexico, ejecting to smaller pieces of energy which may result in a few showers on Monday and perhaps a heavy rain and thunder scenario at midweek. The addition of a weak frontal structure and high dewpoint field from the Gulf of Mexico will also mean extensive fog the next few nights.
The real weather threat for Texas (and indeed, much of the lower 48 states) will be this coming weekend. A storm sequence below the Aleutian Islands will dig south and east into the Rocky Mountains and High Plains on February 9 - 10. Interacting with the moisture axis to its south and building a strong surface convergence pattern, the low will likely set off heavy or severe thunderstorms in TX, OK and KS through the Old South and the Ohio Valley before pulling away into the St. Lawrence Valley on February 12. Snow, wind and cold will be a problem north and west of the storm track, and it seems likely that colder air will descend into the Lone Star State (if only for a short while) by the middle of next week. It still seems likely that another important rain event will unfold over Houston and the western Gulf Coast around February 15.
Useful Links
Dundee Satellite Receiving Station
GOES Project Science
Texas Meteorological Satellite Images - GOES — Texas Commission on Environment
The Forecast
Monday: Variable cloudiness and mild with a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 69 Brenham to 73 Kemah
Monday Night: A few showers early; then variable cloudiness with locally dense fog developing. Lows 56 Washington to 60 Bacliff
Tuesday: Variable cloudiness, mild and humid. A sprinkle or stray rain shower is possible after early morning fog disperses. Highs 71 Chappell Hill to 75 Clear Lake
Tuesday Night: Cloudy with locally dense fog and drizzle developing. Lows 54 Hempstead to 58 Seabrook
Wednesday: Showers and thunderstorms, heavy at times. Highs 70 Monaville to 74 Friendswood.
Extended Outlook
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a few showers. High 74, Low 61
Friday: Mostly cloudy with spotty drizzle. High 63, Low 49
Saturday: Mostly cloudy, windy, mild and humid with occasional showers. High 73, Low 57
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