Discussion
Now we fall into that "cooler" and "occasionally miserable" forecast mode.
The storm which triggered a tornado outbreak in the Deep South on Sunday will move rapidly northeastward, bringing heavy rain and melting milder temperatures to the snow-stricken Northeast. This system has some energy and cold air left behind it over the Intermountain Region, with a new wave cyclogenesis result below Galveston on Monday evening. Enough instability and dynamics exist to allow for some heavy rainfall and locally strong thunderstorms on Tuesday morning, with the convection shooting rapidly eastward into Georgia and the Carolinas. There remains a chance that this feature could bring moderate amounts of ice and snow across portions of the Cumberland Plateau, middle Appalachia and the Mid-Atlantic regions on February 13 before shearing apart on Valentine's Day.
Given the progressive nature of the upper air pattern across North America, we should not expect the cold air push behind the currently evolving storm to be either impressive or long-lasting. Wednesday and Thursday should see a return to milder temperatures. But what occurs on the weekend may confuse those who think that our fairly mild winter holds no "surprises".
A huge push of Arctic air will drop south and eastward behind the digging of a storm now viewed on GOES WEST imagery over the northern Pacific Ocean. This feature will likely come in contact with a formative subtropical jet stream below Hawaii, and quite possible could reform over southern Colorado on Thursday night. Aside from a few showers in Houston on Friday morning (this feature could be a far bigger snow and ice problem in the Midwest and Great Lakes region), you will notice the parent trough and cold dome, which will give us our (probably) last chance this winter at sub-freezing temperatures on Saturday and Sunday morning.
But come early next week, I fully expect another round of warming to reach into Texas. The pattern in late February will see an increased presence of a heat ridge over the Greater Antilles, then into Florida and the Bahamas. If computer forecasts for March hold true, we face the demons of heat, humidity, and strong thunderstorms early, and often.
Useful Links
National Weather Service - Eastern Region Hydrometeorological Event Display
Wind Map
Coastal Water Temperature Guide
The Forecast
Monday: Cloudy and cooler with occasional drizzle and showers. A thunderstorm is possible. Highs 58 Fostoria to 62 Galveston
Monday Night: Cloudy with rain and drizzle. Dense fog likely along the Gulf Coast. Lows 52 Security to 56 Bayou Vista
Tuesday: Rain and thunderstorms possible through early afternoon. Mostly cloudy and mild. Highs 60 Cut And Shoot to 64 Hitchcock
Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, breezy and colder. Lows 39 Conroe to 43 Alvin
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and cool. Highs 56 The Woodlands to 60 Manvel
Extended Outlook
Thursday: Partly sunny and mild. High 65, Low 42
Friday: Partly cloudy, windy and colder; a few showers possible in the morning. High 60, Low 44
Saturday: Sunny and unusually cold. High 53, Low 30
Comments