The weather pattern will shift from that of a chilly scenario to more of a warmer, mild, more unsettled one through the coming weekend. An elongated stationary frontal boundary will reside from roughly the New York and Canada border, just south of Montreal and into the Saint Lawrence Valley, south and eastward, all the way into eastern Texas. Several waves of low pressure will propagate along the boundary through the coming weekend.
This kind of a weather pattern is usually synonymous with above average temperatures over the Capital Region, as well as prolonged bouts of precipitation. In addition, due to the recent snowfall, and subsequent snow pack in place, areas of dense fog will be possible from time to time as warmer air overrides the cold snowpack. Areas to the north and northwest of the Capital Region may also see enough low level cold air remain in place that freezing rain may become an issue through Saturday.
The heaviest precipitation associated with these ripples of low pressure looks to occur on Sunday. There is the concern for flooding as well, and potential ice break up on local area rivers.
A strong cold front passes through the region Sunday night and early Monday, putting an end to the unsettled pattern, and allowing high pressure from Canada to build into the region in time for the Christmas holiday. It will be windy and much cooler by this time, as temperatures dip back to below normal levels. Brisk northwesterly breezes will add to the chill.
...Below is the official forecast for the Capital Region and vicinity...
Today: Overcast with light rain and showers developing during the course of the day. High in the mid 40’s. South winds 5-10 MPH. Chance of rain is 70 percent.
Tonight: Overcast with periods of light rain and showers. Areas of dense fog forming overnight. Low near 35. Southwest winds 5-10 MPH. Chance of rain is 70 percent.
Saturday: Overcast with periods of rain and showers. Areas of patchy, dense fog possible. High in the upper 40’s. South winds 5-10 MPH. Chance of rain is 90 percent.
Saturday Night: Periods of rain. Rain may be heavy at times late at night. Areas of fog possible. Low near 40. South winds 5-10 MPH. Chance of rain is 90 percent.
Sunday: Periods of rain, heavy at times. Becoming windy during the afternoon. Mild. High in the mid 50’s. South winds increasing to 10-20 MPH with some higher gusts possible at times. Chance of rain is 80 percent.
Monday: Partly sunny, windy, and turning colder with a 30 percent chance of morning rain showers and afternoon showers. High near 45 and low near 20.
Christmas Eve: Mostly sunny and windy. High near 25 and low near 10.
Christmas Day: Mostly sunny and windy. High near 30 and low near 15.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High near 30 and low near 15.