Houston area sky watchers are geared up for the descent of Russia’s Mars probe Phobos-Grunt,which is headed to the Earth beginning on January 15, Sunday.
The probe was launched on November 8, 2011 from Kazakhstan aimed toward the Martian moon, Phobos. It also carried a Chinese Mars orbiter and Planetary Society microbe experiment.
The descent to Earth is under investigation after attempts to re-establish radio communications by the European Space Agency and NASA transmitters failed.
Where, when or what will land is a mystery. The majority of the device is slated to burn in the atmosphere, but more than an estimated 20 chunks of charred debris will make landfall. Chances that Greater Houston area residents might actually see it are slim according to professionals in the field.
Barbara Wilson, staff astronomer at George Observatory outside of Houston in Sugarland, Texas, refers watchers to the site, http://www.n2yo.com/?s=37872, to track the path.
She said to even consider photographing space debris conditions must be exactly right, and patience is a must. “Timing is everything, and a clear sky is paramount. A camera with a tripod and remote shutter and wide angle lens is needed. The drag of the debris is going to change with the orbital mechanics. You could see a glowing when the material hits the atmosphere. It’s like hitting a brick wall. The error bar will narrow as it gets closer,” said Wilson.
Mike Prokosch is the staff laboratory assistant at Sam Houston State University Planetarium and Observatory in Huntsville near Houston. He said space debris falls more often than most think. He recommends www.heavens-above.com and www.spaceweather.com to help track the probe.
“This is going to hit the atmosphere head-on or skip along. It could even pass over in the daytime. The likelihood we’ll see it here is slim. You can try to plan as early as you can, but it’s can change because of the atmospheric drag,” Prokosch said.
Paul Maley has 41 years experience in the space industry and works with the NASA/JSC Astronomical Society. He said if debris is spotted, it will have a fireball trailing with sparks, and that’s with a clear sky.
“The odds of being visible are pretty low. The region of travel is fairly broad. There’s a 500 to 1,000 mile arc depending on the angle it enters the Earth’s atmosphere,” he said.
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