The new Washington Post/ABC News poll reported yesterday, showing a slim plurality approving of Obamacare, arrives at those results by over-sampling Democrats. The result, by sampling Democrats who are heavily supportive of Obamacare and including too many of them in the sample, creates a skewed result. The poll reports 49 percent supporting Obamacare while 48 percent are opposed to the health care reform law.
The poll also reveals that Democrats favor Obamacare 76 percent to 21 percent while Republicans oppose it 78 percent to 20 percent. Independents, who make up typically about one-third of the voting electorate, oppose Obamacare 54 percent to 44 percent in favor of it. Calculations based on these numbers estimate that about 40 percent of those surveyed self-identified as Democrats while the sample included about 27 percent Republicans and 30 percent independents. No current legitimate survey data suggests that 40 percent of voters are Democrats. Once again, like many of the polls in 2012, this survey over-sampled Democrats to show a skewed results.
Based on the 2012 exit poll data showing the electorate to including 37 percent Democrats, 32 percent Republicans and 29 percent independents, if Mitt Romney had received 21 percent of Democrats, 78 percent of Republicans, and 54 percent of independents as opposition to Obamacare received, he would have won the 2012 election 52 percent to 48 percent over Obama. Clearly, those results can't legitimately show 49 percent in favor of Obamacare.
The data from the Washington Post/ABC News polls, unskewed, indicates 55 percent opposing Obamacare while 43 percent support it. This would still vary greatly from the Associated Press/GfK survey last week that showed Obamacare having a 26 percent approval rating.
It should be noted also, the Washington Post/ABC News poll was the first reported to be skewed, and likewise unskewed, in this column here on Examiner. During the 2012 election season, this particular poll remained among the most skewed of media-commissioned surveys.
Earlier this week, the latest CNN/ORC poll was similarly skewed. In 2012 during the last presidential election on the Fox News segment “Campaign Insiders” show, Democratic pollsters Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen both confirmed their belief that major polls are skewed in favor of the Democrats by over-sampling of Democratic voters when the surveys are conducted.
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