High pressure was over the eastern New England coast early this morning, and an upper level disturbance was sweeping over the Capital Region. Snow showers had broken out in response to the upper level system, which was moving rapidly eastward and should be clear of the area before the lunch hour. Skies will begin to clear over the region during the afternoon as a mix of sun and clouds develops for the remainder of the daylight hours.
A low pressure area will develop over the central and southern Plains through the day today, and will lift north and east into the upper Great Lakes during the day on Saturday. The warm front tied to this feature will send precipitation in the direction of the region beginning overnight tonight and early Saturday morning. Temperatures will be marginally cold enough such that some of the precipitation may initially begin as a mix of rain, sleet, and/or freezing rain. With the passage of the warm front, temperatures will rise sharply, and precipitation should quickly transition to all rain during the morning hours Saturday.
Rainfall may come down at a moderate to heavy intensity during the day on Saturday, raising flooding concerns. Area rivers will need to be monitored closely as ice formation which occurred during the recent cold snap may begin to break up and cause ice jams thanks to increased run off. In addition, some urban and poor drainage area flooding may also occur across portions of the region as the rain falls on frozen ground and is unable to soak into the ground.
The second half of the weekend will feature a cold front passing through the region on Sunday morning. Rain showers in advance of the front may transition back to snow showers before tapering off by Sunday afternoon. Winds will pick up during the day on Sunday and may become quite gusty during the afternoon hours.
The new work week begins under the influence of weak high pressure on Monday. Another series of storm systems approaches for Tuesday and into Wednesday with a wintry mix of precipitation possible.
...Below is the official forecast for the Capital Region and vicinity...
**National Weather Service Flood Watch In Effect Saturday Afternoon Through Sunday Afternoon**
Today: Light snow and snow showers tapering off this morning. Intervals of clouds and sunshine by afternoon. High in the mid 30’s. South winds 5-10 MPH. A coating of additional snow accumulation possible during the morning.
Tonight: Partly cloudy to start, with increasing clouds overnight. A chance of light rain, sleet, and/or freezing drizzle after midnight. Patchy, locally dense, fog may develop late at night. Low near 30. Light south winds.
Saturday: Early morning sleet, light rain, and/or freezing drizzle changing to all rain. Rain may be heavy at times during the afternoon. Becoming breezy and milder. High near 50. South winds 10-15 MPH. Chance of precipitation is 100 percent.
Saturday Night: Periods of rain, heavy at times during the evening. Breezy. Low near 35. South winds 10-15 MPH, shifting west and increasing to 15-25 MPH and gusty after midnight. Chance of rain is 70 percent.
Sunday: A chance of rain and/or snow showers early, then a mix of sun and clouds by afternoon. Windy. High near 45. West winds 15-25 MPH with some higher gusts possible at times. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent.
Monday: Mostly sunny. High near 45 and low near 35.
Tuesday: A 50 percent chance of light rain. Windy. High near 40 and low near 30.
Wednesday: A 40 percent chance of snow, sleet, and/or rain early. Otherwise, becoming partly sunny. High near 35 and low near 25.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High near 35 and low near 20.