With no snow on the ground for yet another early January, save for peculiar piles in large parking lots, this month has been mild on average for Long Island. Even warmer temperatures are on the way, but part of the long range outlook looks "polar."
With Friday's temperatures into the 40s, average numbers for January 2013 will get a bit of a boost. The average temperature is now running three degrees above normal and should increase as we hit the halfway point of the month. Friday's rainfall was a welcomed sight as unwashed cars were looking a bit unsightly and the roads were a salted mess.
This rain was the leading edge of warmer air that will encompass the tri-state area this weekend. Highs are expected to be in the 50s, with 40s and fog expected at night. There are variables to consider with a warm weekend in the winter. Do we get enough sun, and do any seabreezes spoil the fun? Both questions get mixed answers for Long Island. Mostly cloudy skies are expected, but a good amount of sun during the day can make temperatures skyrocket and bust every meteorologist's forecast. Secondly with onshore winds, don't expect a warm-up that's significant as the one that may occur north and west of New York City. With some sun and a lighter seabreeze effect, low to mid 50s is all Mother Nature can muster. This is especially true for Sunday.
In this pattern, fog could be dense at night, so advisories are possible.
Monday is another warm day but a slow-moving front brings on and off rain into Tuesday. The timing of any precipitation is suspect at best on computer model maps, so "a chance" is good for early next week. This front passes and temperatures take a nosedive with 30s for daytime highs by Thursday.
In typical fashion, long range models disagree on the pattern setup for any cold air by late next week. While below normal temperatures are expected, "how low will they go?" should be answered soon.