In a January 2, 2012, article in the journal Nature, Joeri Rogelj, researcher at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, and colleagues published a new study on the probability of keeping average global temperatures from rising more than 2°C above preindustrial levels that indicates political will is the greatest uncertainty involved.
“The most important uncertainty, according to the study, is political - that is, the question of when countries will begin to take serious action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and implement other policies that could help mitigate climate change.”
"With a twenty-year delay, you can throw as much money as you have at the problem, and the best outcome you can get is a fifty-fifty chance of keeping temperature rise below two degrees." Two degrees is the level that is currently supported by over 190 countries as a limit to avoid dangerous climate change. “
Considering that the recent global climate change meeting in Doha came up with nothing more than a reaffirmation of the Kyoto Protocol that the largest producers of CO2 have not followed or have foisted off their responsibility by reducing CO2 admissions at home and selling fossil fuels to other countries, the future is not very bright.
“The authors used scenarios to define how these factors affect the probability of staying within a given temperature target, at a variety of carbon prices. In addition to the 2°C target, the researchers also explored the distribution of costs and risks for limiting global warming to below 1.5°C and 3°C. Even for a 3°C target, a 20-year delay in the most stringent greenhouse gas reductions in combination with a high demand future means that there would remain a one in three chance that temperatures exceed 3°C. At the same time, limiting warming to 1.5°C with at least a fifty-fifty chance (a target supported by the least-developed countries and small island states) appears only to be possible if the world starts acting on climate change now and turns towards an energy-efficient future.”
Similar to the fiscal cliff scenario, government will wait until the last minute and fail by waiting.
The research was reviewed at the Eureka Alert website the date of publication.