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President Obama faces a two front war on health care. AP Photo Alex Brandon
By now every major news and survey organization is producing a poll on health care reform and spitting them out faster than cars on an assembly line. Depending on what poll you trust support for health care reform lies anywhere from the low forties to the high fifties. The problem in analyzing any poll on health care reform is that we have no idea what the poll really means for a number of reasons. Let me dissect the Rasmussen poll as an example.
According to the most recent Rasmussen poll 44% of Americans support the current health care reform plan while 53% oppose. These numbers have been fairly consistent in the Rasmussen poll with minor exceptions such as a bump after President Obama's address to a joint session of Congress. So why is this data somewhat misleading?
First let us look at the question Rasmussen ask poll takers. The following wording is used by Rasmussen to gauge public opinion on reform:
Generally speaking, do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and the congressional Democrats?"
Now do I think Rasmussen is part of some grand conspiracy to skew data on health care reform? No but I do believe this question unintentionally skews the numbers against reform. The question ask viewers if they support the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats. The problem is at this time there is no single plan supported by President Obama and congressional Democrats. Instead there is a mix of proposals including the more progressive plan of HR 3200 passed out the House committee and the much more moderate plan recently released by Senator Baucus (D-MT). As a result we really do not know if people "disapprove of the health care reform plan" because (1) there is no such plan and (2) whatever people are "disapproving" may or may not be in the final version voted on by Congress. For example, many may disapprove of the public option in HR 3200 but that element may actually be gone from the final version of the bill.
The second reason questions like those above are misleading is best illustrated in the video below. When President Obama brings up the most recent bill released by Senator Baucus the largely progressive student audience actually boos the proposal. When the President brings up the public option the crowd cheers wildly. Right now reform plans face opposition from two sides. Conservatives oppose reform because of what they see as a government takeover and increased spending. Liberals (like those in this crowd) actually oppose reform such as that proposed by Senator Baucus because it does not have enough government involvement in the form of a public option. So when we see that 53% oppose the health care reform plan this does not mean that all 53% oppose government involvement in health care. On the contrary many liberals oppose the current plans because of the lack of government involvement in the proposals.
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